Thread by @pmdfoster

Once AGAIN @BorisJohnson says that his #Brexit deal will mean NO checks for goods travelling from Great Britain to Northern Ireland, if he does a 'zero tariff' deal with he EU - must know that's wrong. Is this just pure cynicism? 1/Thread

@BorisJohnson Here's what he said in Belfast..the "only circumstance" you cd "imagine" checks is if UK failed to get zero/zero deal....but that's simply wrong..../2

@BorisJohnson So here is the slide from the EU explanation of the NEW Irish Protocol Johnson negotiated...that's pretty clear. Checks, both on animals/industrial goods AND customs declarations. What about in a 'zero tariff deal'? /3

ec.europa.eu/commission/sit…

@BorisJohnson Well, even if we don't like believe the EU side, we have that handy leaked document from Her Majesty's Treasury...what does that say? /4

@BorisJohnson Let's go through them one by one.

a) NO FTA (we crash out w/o a deal, onto WTO schedule. Then 'Yes' we'll pay tariffs.

b) FTA: if it's not 'zero' tariff, we'll have the checks to pay tariffs

c) Zero/Zero FTA - yup, need checks "Rules of Origin (FTA) /5

@BorisJohnson In layman terms, that means that EVEN if we have a zero-tariff deal, you'll still need checks to ensure that any good "at risk" of going into EU, and all 'manufacturing inputs' QUALIFY for zero-tariff treatment. /6

@BorisJohnson You will also need, per that chart, checks on:

- safety & security
- SPS (animal/plant)
- Regulatory checks

The seriousness of which will depend on kinds of deals we do with EU, whether we get NZ-style vet agreement etc.

See JP Campbell here

@BorisJohnson Sorry! Here/8

https://twitter.com/JP_Biz/status/1216711541413892096?s=20

@BorisJohnson Business groups are very clear that these checks are NOT insignificant - and will hit SMEs (small and micro businesses) hard in terms of cost...the impact of these in principle is spelled out very well here by @Foodanddrinkfed /9

fdf.org.uk/corporate_pubs…

@BorisJohnson @Foodanddrinkfed NI biz groups - @ManufacturingNI @Freight_NI @MichaelAodhan at NI retail been very clear of their concerns about this - and they do this stuff on the ground.

It is true details are still to be worked out, but there is NO POSSIBLE CONSTRUCTION that makes Johnson's words true /10

@BorisJohnson @Foodanddrinkfed @ManufacturingNI @Freight_NI @MichaelAodhan On goods going NI-GB the prime minister is on safer ground - ultimately that is up to UK and the HM Treasury document was a pretty cheeky piece of Whitehall turf-warring. /11

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1202954135034875908?lang=en

@BorisJohnson @Foodanddrinkfed @ManufacturingNI @Freight_NI @MichaelAodhan It is very difficult to know what to make about Mr Johnson continuously repeating this stuff when he must know it is nonsense.

And even the GB electorate doesn't know/understand/care...the NI electorate surely do. /12

@BorisJohnson @Foodanddrinkfed @ManufacturingNI @Freight_NI @MichaelAodhan #Brexit IS happening. Alleluia. I'm as bored of the phoney war as the next man.

Mr Johnson may think he can conduct the entire thing behind the nation's back.

And if things turn black, he'll just say they are white.

But watch out.../13

@BorisJohnson @Foodanddrinkfed @ManufacturingNI @Freight_NI @MichaelAodhan Because you cannot wantonly devalue the currency of the Prime Ministerial word without effect.

Brexit is a journey, and a long one. The leaders of this country need to persuade people of its merits and trade-offs, and when times get hard, they will need people's trust. /14

@BorisJohnson @Foodanddrinkfed @ManufacturingNI @Freight_NI @MichaelAodhan It might not matter now (reminds me of Tony Blair successfully batting away the Formula One/Bernie Ecclestone thing?) but sooner or later taking people for fools doesn't work. The British public has an unerring nose for political humbug - just watch GoggleBox! /15

@BorisJohnson @Foodanddrinkfed @ManufacturingNI @Freight_NI @MichaelAodhan But more profoundly, a propagandist approach to government is profoundly corrosive. I've worked in a few countries where that's the case and it rots societies from within.

There WILL be checks. They SHOULD be manageable - why not just say that? Coz its what the deal says! ENDS