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1/ As we know, the EU is insistent the backstop is here to stay. But could it be tweaked? EU diplomats have been privately discussing what changes could be made to the border fix if that would help deliver a deal. Below is one of the ideas in contention. thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/97…
2/ Some thinking is centring on the concept of a stripped down backstop focussing primarily on the farming industry. It would involve Northern Ireland aligning with EU standards on Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) measures covering livestock, plus animal and plant products.
3/ However, the EU would drop requirements for regulatory alignment on all other goods not covered by SPS rules - the 'residual trade flow' - crossing the border. On these trade streams the EU would have to take a 'controlled risk' in terms of standards and smuggling.
4/ There would still be no tariffs charged on any goods and the residual trade flow would be monitored by Alternative Arrangements, like a trusted trader scheme, to reduce that risk. The EU would have an emergency handbrake to be triggered if it detected abuse of the system.
5/ The reasoning is simple - the vast majority of goods crossing the Irish border fall under the SPS regime. It is thought only around a fifth would come under the residual trade flow and the monetary value of that is tiny in Single Market terms. So the overall EU risk is small.
6/ The advantage of this idea is that it would allay British fears the backstop will trap the UK into swathes of EU regulation covering large parts of the economy by whittling it down to focus on animal and food standards, which Britain says it doesn't want to dilute anyway.
7/ But there is a problem, as checks would still be required on animal and plant products travelling between Great Britain and Northern Ireland to ensure the integrity of this system. These minimal Max Fac assisted checks are already in the Barnier backstop and enraged the DUP.
8/ There is also another issue, which is that it is by no means guaranteed that the EU will go for it in the end. These are, as stated, preliminary talks between EU diplomats on avenues for exploration. It is not by any stretch of the imagination an agreed EU position yet.
9/ The French are likely to have big reservations about any risk to the integrity of the Single Market, however small. But, as an EU source puts it, the very fact they're discussing such ideas shows Boris has had some 'success' in making the EU sit up and reevaluate its approach.
10/ Then there's the biggie, which is will it deliver a majority? The EU is unlikely to go out on a limb again unless it believes doing so will make the decisive difference. Other options remain in contention including (whisper it quietly) a time limit but have the same problem.
11/ A time limit was always unattractive to the EU but has been made even more so by the PM's intention to ditch the Level Playing Field and diverge from EU rules. That would increase the need for checks, making the prospect of workable tech fixes in the short-term even slimmer.
12/ For now we're in a political environment where complex, technical ideas like this don't stand much of a chance. The EU side acknowledges that. Its hope is that the opening whirlwind of the Johnson premiership will subside and then the two sides can sit down and talk detail.
