Thread by @PartTimePM

National is currently campaigning as if they have no desire to win the upcoming general election. Their actions do not align with that ideal, and lack the coherency and strategy needed for victory.

Long thread sorry.

#nzpol @paulabennettmp @NZNationalParty

1. Persuasion required.
2. National looks electable, but...
3. ...they don't look desirable.
4. National has no message.
5. National feels worse.
6. Voters need a reason to move. National isn't providing it.

1) Persuasion required. In order to execute on its ideals and stated policy, a party must be in power as part of the government, not in opposition. That means winning an election, which means persuading voters that you are the preferred choice to represent them.

Given National's current polling, they need to increase the number of votes cast for their party. They also lack significant allies, and as such will need to do this work largely on their own. This means either increasing voter turnout significantly and disproportionately in...

...their favour, or persuading voters who currently favour other parties who are *not* their allies to switch sides. With the current polling margins, turnout increase alone will not be enough, and that's not even getting into the extreme hurdle that poses. Leaving persuasion.

2) Looking electable. As a general rule, people do not like backing losers. In order to be attractive enough to vote for, National first needs to look like they have a chance. National is fortunate in this regard, having capitalised on a significantly favourable view of their...

...previous nine years in power, and on not being significantly defeated in the 2017 election. They look strong enough to have a decent chance of winning, and as such are worthy of voters' attention as a possible choice in 2020. HOWEVER:

3) They don't look desirable to the voters who need to change their minds. National's current campaign strategy seems very haphazard and negative, and seems designed to appeal to voters who would already vote for them (or their allies) anyway, without needing to be persuaded.

The reality is that National needs to look attractive to *Labour's* voters. Not all of them, and certainly not the most radical of them... but those nearer the centre, who will be comparing the two major parties, seeing upsides and downsides to each, and having to make a call...

...who they will back. Remember, these are people who probably voted for Labour in 2017, which means that many of them care about the kinds of ideals Labour espoused during that campaign. It doesn't matter how realistic those promises were, or how much the reality of Labour...

...matches up to their campaign ideals. What matters is how those things make voters feel, and how National makes them feel in comparison.

4) National has no message. They certainly claim to have a message... many of them. But this is much of the problem - there is no focus. National, and in particular Bridges, seem to revel in jumping on and having an opinion on every topic that wanders by, without thought or...

...care for the electoral consequences of doing so. The important topics just get lost in all the other noise, and National has no chance of standing out on those. Where they do promote a message above the rest of the chaff, the message they choose to promote is the wrong one.

Telling the country you'll crack down on gangs is a great way to appeal - to solid National voters, who were already won. Telling the country you will reinstate harsher welfare sanctions is a great way to appeal - to solid National voters. Neither of those things look...

...particularly attractive to a Labour voter who would prefer to see a more wholistic approach taken to crime and poverty than simply cracking down on the symptoms, rather than addressing the root causes.

Voting for the Zero Carbon Act, saying the framework looked good, but the details needed tweaking, was great - it appealed to the right place. But when every climate change denier the party has then wades right in and rubbishes that position, suddenly it looks like lip service.

In order to take centre voters away from Labour, National needs to focus on a few key points that will appeal to those voters. Ditch the noise. Don't jump at every topic. Don't try to campaign for a base who will vote for you (or your allies) regardless.

5) National feels worse. Merit aside, Labour currently has a leader who many feel is extremely charismatic. Perhaps half the Labour party vote hangs off her personally, and that was further enhanced by her response to the mosque attacks in March 2019. National has no equivalent.

In addition to lacking any charisma and personal attraction in their leadership team, National has chosen to go with an attack style of campaigning that leaves a pretty sour taste in the mouth. While some of it might be accurate, it's hard not to contrast that with...

...how Labour leaves one feeling. Incompetent perhaps, but they put a lot of effort into appearing to genuinely care about the human side of society. National, whether they do or not, simply do not come across that way.

Given time and attention are very scarce commodities, National needs to change messaging style to something that leaves voters feeling better after a brief exposure to it, provides some hope of improvement, and a first impression of "yes, THAT sounds good!" - to *Labour* voters.

6) Voters need a reason to move. In lieu of hope, or compelling argument, or simply something that makes them feel better, voters have no reason to change. This may mean adopting policy further left than they would like - but in power with compromise is better than opposition.

There is no need to worry about losing votes on the right - they have nowhere to go that won't end up in coalition with National anyway. Let Act be the pressure relief valve it is, let them pick up a few disgruntled votes from National's base, and campaign pragmatically.

National cannot simply continue under the assumption that voters will wake up and realise they should change their vote - rather than expecting voters to move to National, National needs to move toward the voters they need. Stop the directionless shouting, and campaign to win.