Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #cpi

Most recents (24)

How to tackle the current climbing Inflation:
Consumer price index (CPI) June 2022 stood at 8.2%.
From the ONS report linked below:…
"The main drivers of inflation were from housing and household services (principally from electricity, gas and other fuels, and owner occupiers' housing costs) and transport (principally from motor fuels)."
From the Washington Post 8th August:
"Recent second-quarter earnings reports proffered eye-popping figures: BP posted second-quarter profits worth $8.5 billion, its biggest windfall in 14 years...
Read 11 tweets
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰

1/7 🧵

Global Macro Review 08/14/2022

A big decline in $CPI to +8.5% y/y, ➕ the July services #PMI ↗️ ➕ #NFP ↗️, kept the 🔥 burning on risk assets - enough to lure the ♉️

Is this a new ♉️ market or the end of the 🐻 rally?

Let’s dig into the 🧮!

Equity volatility ↘️ across market and 🐻 Trend (T)

$VX 19.53 -1.62 bps
$VXN 25.18 -1.95 bps
$RVX 24.23 -1.07 bps
$VSTOXX 21.21 -1.64 bps
$VXEEM 19.45 -2.41 bps

Chart: $VXEEM lending support to $EEM 🆕 ♉️

US equity indices 🚀

$SPX +3.25% (w) +6.35% (T) 🆕 ♉️
$COMPQ +3.1% (w) +10.55% (T)
$IWM +5.0% (w) +12.5% (T)

Chart: $IWM - small caps have retraced nearly 50% of the 6-mo decline
Read 16 tweets
1/8 GM everyone,

Time for some trade brake down as one of the people in the comments was confused on why the SL was moved into profit.

Q: why move the SL to profit, nothing changed.
A: The whole regime of the trade changed once is in profit.
2/8 Q: OK but moving the SL in profit you don't have same RR.
A: Let's extrapolate, from 500 trades if I manage to have SL in profit for 400 of them & 100 closed on usual SL with RR 1/2.5 you think is a good ratio?
This is my "edge" & I'll capitalize on it while minimizing loses
3/8 What happened with the initial $BNB short:
After the trade went ITM (in the money) I placed the StopLoss in profit and on yesterday's better than expected #CPI print it was closed.
I almost never trade on high volatility news, so I waited for the dust to settle.
Read 8 tweets
开个帖子复盘,#CPI 公布前,主力在做什么~
尤其是突破23.8k后,大户开始陆续出货或者说制造压盘。最明显的是 #OKX #BTC 现货,我们周一更新过超级大户压盘——在24200有一笔近1000个btc超大卖单。
Binance BTC现货则是直接成交了几笔大额委托卖单
合约方面,#binance 和okx #BTC /USD当季前后脚在9日凌晨1点附近都有零星大户卖出平多
Read 7 tweets
The headline #inflation data today moderated a bit on the back of falling #gasoline prices, but it’s still running at a worryingly high rate.
Over time, we think the slowdown in #economic growth, the continuation of the @federalreserve’s assertive #HikingCycle and the possibility of resolution with several persistent supply chain issues should influence broad #inflation lower.
Still, while #CorePCE inflation (the #Fed’s favored measure) is likely to moderate in the coming months, it’ll still remain well-above the Fed’s 2% #inflation target.
Read 15 tweets
And the answer is:
Headline: ZERO M/M
Core: 0.3%
The end is nigh!
That headline reading was with food UP 1.1% in July, offset by energy falling -4.9% on the month. (Energy commodities -7.6%)
Core commodities (goods) only rises 0.2% on the month as supply chains reopen and production inventories build to backlog. On the services side, the price rise falls to 0.4% driven by a -0.5 decline in transportation services in July.
Read 13 tweets

Why August month can be #Bullish for #cryptocurrency

•No #Fed / #FOMC Meeting in August So their might not be #interestrates hikes

#Crypto #CryptoNews #ETH $ETH #Ethereum #BTC #Bitcoin $BTC #Binance #BNB

Oil Price

•When You compare the #Oil price with june month,There is Fall of Oil Price in July month
•This affects #inflation
•That means #CPI Data of #USA can come down to 8.5% to 8.8% range

#Crypto #cryptocurrency #BTC $BTC #Bitcoin #ETH $ETH #Ethereum #binance #BNB

Consumer Spending

•Even though the #inflation is at peak the #USA Consumer Spending has not got reduced in June
•We can expect the same in July also
•This also affects the #inflation I.e, We Can see a Drop in #CPI

#Crypto #cryptocurrency #BTC #Bitcoin $BTC #ETH $ETH

Read 11 tweets
Today is an hot day, not only for temperatures, but also for economic data.

Follow me meanwhile I unroll all the new prints we had today

Super important thread on #inflation and the #housing #market

Lot of metrics to cover, get comfortable and get ready

🤓🧵 Image
#CPI prints:



#Canada YoY

#Canada MoM

Let's unpack it briefly
With a 9.4% UK finds itself on the firsts European (continent) Countries that are approaching double digits #inflation, and with the lack of haste in interventions on the #monetary #policies side, the #peak #inflation seems still far away. Let alone the MoM momentum, still high
Read 20 tweets
(1/9) 🧵👇Market Wrap #3: 📰 Market Recap 📰

1. EUR dips below Dollar parity for the first time in 20 years

> Ukraine Russia war caused an energy crisis in EU. ECB is trying to curb inflation and cushion a slowing economy where it aims to raise borrowing costs.

> he US #Fed is raising interest rates at an accelerated rate, causing yields on US #Treasury Bonds to surge higher than EU’s debt — driving investors to the dollar and away from euros.

> Weaker currencies used to be welcomed as a means to stimulate economic growth. This is now undesirable due to inflation, making imports expensive. EU #CPI jumped to 8.6% in just a year.
Read 9 tweets
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰

Global Macro Review 07/17/22


Has #inflation peaked?

June #CPI +9.1% ♨️, but core +5.9% 🔻
@NYFedResearch consumer inflation expectations 1-year +6.8% 🔺, but UMich +5.2% 🔻from 5.3%

And firms +3.7% unch per @AtlantaFed

Let’s dig into more 🧮!


Chart: Since the June 10 peak at 329.59, the $CRB is -15.75% – and deeply oversold

Metals have been 🐻 Trend since May
(T) = Trend = 3 mos price momentum

$COPPER -8.5% (w) -31.55% (T)
$SILVER -3.4% (w) -27.65% (T)
$PLAT -6.0% (w) -16.5% (T)
$GOLD -2.2% (w) -13.75% (T)

Chart: Base metals ↘️ with $DBB -6.45% (w) -31.0% (T)
Read 13 tweets
The Consumer Price Index #CPI is 9.1% Year over Year. The Fed’s solution is to raise interest rates, killing the economy to bring down #inflation. A thread (1/10) about establishment logic.
Article version:…
2. Fed Chair Powell wants to raise unemployment and lower wages to fight inflation. Recession risk is a lower priority.…
3. But, many sectors of the economy are not interest-rate sensitive. Interest rates are a blunt tool for managing inflation.…
Read 10 tweets
1) People intending to vacation by car fell to 22.7% in June (BN).

Lowest seasonally in > 4Y.

"36% of Americans surveyed this month intend to take a vacation within the next six months, the weakest June reading any ...

$SPY $QQQ $TLT $GLD #Commodities… Image
2) Y in data going back over 40 years, excluding 2020"

So at least some demand destruction may continue.

Avg US unleaded price was $4.88 yesterday vs $5.02 peak Jun 13.

But gas price spiked end of May into Jun. So avg Jun price MTD is $4.96 vs $4.56 ...
3) avg in May (+ big M/M), which is one of the reasons why Cleveland M/M headline #CPI nowcast is still very high.

Gas price likely falls more, but even if price stops falling, avg price will be down M/M in Jul and becomes a NEGATIVE headwind to Jul CPI!
Read 4 tweets

In this little story I summarize how Covid, Supply Chain, Debt, Wages, Inflation, a Eecession, Insolvency and an aging population come together to form a common solution: Crypto Assets

1) ...
So much is happening in the world. War, High #inflation, Covid, #recession, insolvancy, a debt bubble and Supply Chain problems.

All of these causes have a large impact on the world economy and therefore on your portfolio, which makes it important to understand what is going on. Image
The main consequence:

An nation on the verge of collapse and a debt bubble around the world.

As Ray Dalio said

'A nation in its last effort of strength is hugely in debt, there are internal wealth disparities and printing money seems to many to be the solution, but it is not'. Image
Read 25 tweets
The @federalreserve’s Federal Open Market Committee raised the target range for the Federal Funds #policy rate by 0.75% yesterday, to between 1.50% and 1.75%, as was increasingly anticipated.
The move by the #Fed to progress faster to neutral will be applauded in the long run by the #economy, business decision-makers and ultimately by# markets.
Like putting your car’s transmission (automatic or manual) into #neutral, getting to that place allows for decision-making flexibility given changing road conditions, particularly when the road to the #destination has become increasingly #murky.
Read 13 tweets
Core #CPI (excluding those volatile #food and #energy components) came in at 0.6% month-over-month and rose 6.0% year-over-year.
Meanwhile, headline #CPI data printed at a very strong 1.0% month-over-month and came in at 8.6% year-over-year, spiking higher on #shelter, #gas and food costs.
These persistently outsized gains in #inflation are clearly having an impact on business and #ConsumerConfidence. Also, the #Fed’s favored measure of inflation, core #PCE, increased 0.34% in April, bringing the year-over-year figure for the measure to 4.9%, as of that month.
Read 14 tweets
CPI for May was ugly, up 8.6% from a year ago. There is no good in this, save that it wasn’t even uglier. The typical family must spend about $450 per month more to buy the same goods and services they did a year ago. They make about $70k a year. Ugh!
Primarily behind last month’s painfully high inflation is another spike in oil and gas prices. This goes to Europe’s decision to sanction Russian oil, which has left a hole in global oil supplies. While a laudable rebuke of Russia, it is a significant hit to the global economy.
But there are reasons to think that once oil prices simply settle, even at these lofty prices, inflation will recede. Supply chain stresses are easing, inventories of goods are building, workers are getting back on the job, and inflation expectations are back down.
Read 4 tweets
It is #CPIDay and all (CP)eyes in the markets and at the Fed are on US inflation data due in 5 minutes. The focus will be on M/M core goods and core services.
May M/M Headline #CPI up whopping 1.0%
M/M Core up 0.6%
Lets dive in to see what caused this broad based spike upwards:
And the answer is that Core Goods jumped up 0.7% M/M, relative to a decline of 0.4% in March and and increase of 0.2% in April. Core Services moved up 0.6%, a bit higher than prior months, on an expected jump in rents and owners equivalent rents (both up 0.6% M/M).>>
Read 7 tweets
From #PepeEscobar, @telegram, 3 June 2022.

One of the ongoing debates in OilWorld: How much spare capacity remains in the system to produce oil at additional levels, globally, in case of emergency?

Answer: it’s running out & there ain’t no more!

#PeakOil is back! ⛽️ ✈️ 🚗
Let us not forget the words of the late, great Matthew Simmons (paraphrasing): “Once Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦 has peaked, then the world has effectively peaked.”

Ergo, there’s no spare capacity to offset banned / boycotted Ru oil. Ergo, global oil mkt = sellers mkt now.

The above piece via Pepe Escobar states that there is now declining spare capacity in #KSA 🇸🇦 due to declining investment in #oil extraction tech.

It’s actually the other way around: there’s now declining investment b/c there’s no new profitable 🇸🇦 oil to be had. #PeakOil
Read 10 tweets
In response to Russia's invasion of #Ukraine, the 🌎 came together & weaponized financial systems against #Putin & his associates.

There's a problem though... The legal system that protects us all has been undermined.

It's “very hard to put Humpty Dumpty back together again...”
What will kill this bull market? It won't be the Fed...
@dailydirtnap & Louis Vincent Gave of @Gavekal join forces to explore everything from the consequences of war in Eastern Europe & high energy prices to deglobalization, #supplychains, Fed policy & the perils of weaponized financial systems.

"#CPI will be 10% in September..."
Read 4 tweets
You seem to be the 1st to ask. Been waiting years for this question. Thank you!

Take 3 stylized goods:

F = Food in kgs
G = Gasoline in ltrs
H = Housing as Rent in sq meters

Assume Cobb-Douglas tastes with 2 exponents a_F, b_G (so c_H=1-a_F-b_G) & prices p_0, p_1in R^3 x R^3.
The COST OF LIVING that @BLS_gov pretends to calculate, for any price vectors as above is now a function on the 2-simplex (a_F,b_g) called the Laspeyres Konus formula.

Only one computer programmer needs to be able to understand the above. She can build the function in python.
That function is akin to the temperature or pressure I keep talking about in the standard inflation theory. From there, we move to what is wrong with the standard theory. But this would already show you what is wrong with BLS’ crazy claims to be computing the cost of living. 🙏
Read 5 tweets

Global Macro Review


30 Vol and strong $USD 💣 around the 🌍 with #crypto 💥 and $GOLD breaking Trend (T)

Bond ♉️s finally caught a 🗡️, but equity ♉️s - not so much, though the $DAX, $CAC and $SSEC diverged from $SPX

Let’s dig into the 🧮!

Equity vol came in for a second week but remains 🛗

$VIX 28.87 with Trend (T) @ 27.75
$VXN 37.71
$RVX 35.66
$VSOTXX 29.11
$VXEEM 28.52

Chart: $VIX - positive flows from weekly #OPEX pushed $SPX 2.4% on Friday.

Were it not for positive #OPEX flows, 🇺🇸 equity prices would have been worse by 2-3% on the week

$SPX 2.4% (w) -8.95% (T)
$IWM -2.45% (w) -11.6% (T)
$COMPQ -2.8% (w) -14.4% (T)

Chart: $COMPQ 🔨 is -11.6% over (t) duration = 1-month
Read 17 tweets
I'm back from my week not posting, and here's my forecast for the #inflation numbers on Wednesday 5/11

I forecast the #CPI headline to be 8.2% year-over-year, down from 8.6% YoY in March

Month-over-Month that's 0.35%, down from 1.24%

Core CPI I predict 5.6% YoY, down from 6.2%
This reading should give the fed some hope that inflation is dying down, but we've also heard that before, if I'm right with my call of 0.35% for April, the red line is where the trailing 6 month inflation would be

We've had pauses on this journey before, so can't trust 1 month
Nearly the entire decline this month is caused by a decline in used car prices. The transitorians cited used cars all last year to explain away inflation

Curious to see if they cite it to discount the slowdown in #inflation as well, I wouldn't hold you breath on that one though
Read 6 tweets

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