Alright all you data hounds out there...tell me, is this the right link for the polling behind the image below?
news.gallup.com/poll/284033/am…
news.gallup.com/poll/284033/am…
I'm assuming I've got the right survey results, above. Here then, is the methodology statement necessary for analysis:
"Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Jan. 2-15, 2020, with a random sample of 1,014 adults...
"Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Jan. 2-15, 2020, with a random sample of 1,014 adults...
"...aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. For results based on the total sample of national adults, the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level...
"...All reported margins of sampling error include computed design effects for weighting. Each sample of national adults includes a minimum quota of 70% cellphone respondents and 30% landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas by time zone within region...
"...Landline and cellular telephone numbers are selected using random-digit-dial methods."
In the next day or two I'll organize a thread on this poll. For the moment, please understand, I for one completely reject the methodology of this poll. 1,000 respondents is the bare bones minimum even to consider a poll, and only just barely. 1,500 and up are required.
I'll analyze other flaws in the methodology - as I've done so many times before - in my upcoming thread. For now, hear me on this. Gallup is NO friend to Trump or Republicans. If this weak data gives this result, you may be certain the numbers are far greater in our favor.
A point I'll NEVER stop making is: a national survey, NOT weighted by electoral college impacts, is essentially useless in measuring political reality. With all this going in the negative direction for us, we can be virtually certain the real numbers are vastly more favorable.
