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Read @BrendanNyhan on why Democrats don't want Sanders to win but won't attack him. The parallels to the 2016 Republican primary are impressive. Let's review!

1/n
washingtonpost.com/outlook/damned…
Late in the primary, Trump is leading and party leaders don't want him to win. So what do they do? Nov. 2015 story: "The party establishment is paralyzed. Big money is still on the sidelines."

washingtonpost.com/politics/time-…
Two weeks later: “Plan A for GOP Donors: Wait for Trump to Fall. ( There Is No Plan B.)”

washingtonpost.com/politics/plan-…
Two weeks later: "Donald Trump is a disaster for Republicans. And they can’t do a thing about it."

washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/w…
Check out this from a GOP strategist quoted in that story:
A month later: “The Anti- Trump Calvary That Never Came.” buzzfeednews.com/article/mckayc…
But the award for "Best Illustration of a Collective Action Problem" goes to Mike Murphy of Jeb's super-PAC, who was sitting on a pile of cash but told @sissenberg that Trump was "other people's problem." bloomberg.com/news/features/…
And so when did the GOP attacks on Trump really start? Well, give Jeb a little credit for at least going after him in debates when no one else would.

nationaljournal.com/s/620311/donal…
But pretty much everyone waited until *after* Nevada. Here's a graph of the ads attacking Trump vs. ads attacking other candidates. Note the spike of anti-Trump ads. It is LATE FEBRUARY.
By then, it was too late. Could early attacks on Trump have worked? Hard to know, but his favorability among GOP primary voters was not rock-solid. Big 20-point drops at key moments.
So the lesson is clear. A political party takes a big risk just waiting for a candidate to lose. Is that the mistake that Democrats are about to make?

/fin
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John Sides
@johnmsides
The percentage of Americans who want to increase immigration continues to grow. On this question, Americans are more pro-immigrant than ever. news.gallup.com/poll/246455/so…
A follow-up: Trump's 2016 win wasn't predicated on a "wave" of anti-immigrant sentiment. But by helping to "activate" voters' existing views on immigration, he won enough additional white voters to win the Electoral College.
Here's what "activation" looks like: voters' preexisting views on immigration and Muslims become stronger predictors of their vote in 2016 vs. 2012. For more, see my book with Tesler and @vavreck, Identity Crisis: amazon.com/Identity-Crisi…
Read 6 tweets
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John Sides
@johnmsides
A sizzling series of #HOTTAKES: the expected House and Senate party breakdowns are not that surprising and well within the range of the forecasts. It may be a good/bad night for certain candidates, but overall things look pretty much as expected. 1/x
And while the game-changer narratives are already percolating ("Trump caravan comments worked!"), the simple truth is that people's vote intentions haven't changed that much for months 2/x: washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-ca…
Yes, immigration attitudes matter more now than in recent elections (
nytimes.com/2018/11/05/opi…), but that was already true before the caravan. The caravan itself didn't change much per @pete_enns (washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-ca…) 3/x
Read 5 tweets
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John Sides
@johnmsides
I have a new report out about economic distress in the U.S., co-authored with @rp_griffin. This is based on 2018 polling from @DemocracyFund's Voter Study Group. voterstudygroup.org/publications/2…

Here are a few findings. (1/x)
The big problem with measuring views of the economy is partisan bias (news.gallup.com/poll/233576/am…). "Is the economy getting better" correlates with party identification at |r|=.44.

This report uses a 14-question index that is weakly correlated with party identification. (|r|=.11).
Finding #1: Economic distress is higher among people of color than whites. This should be obvious but the focus on the "white working class" obscures it.

In fact, whites without a college degree report *less* distress than blacks *with* a college degree.
Read 7 tweets

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Richard Hanania
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I'm going to post some commentary here on the Afghan war documents from The Washington Post. 1/n
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Ella Müller
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Seit Jahren untersuche ich die US-Rechte: lese ihre Texte, analysiere polit. Entscheidungen, untersuche ihre Biographien - was man halt so macht. Ein Muster begegnet mir ständig: Die permanente Selbst-Viktimisierung, die im krassen Konstrast zur polit. und ökon. Macht steht. 1/
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Harim B. Gutiérrez
@HarimBGutierrez
1- Hilo. El monumento al Mestizaje en el parque Xicoténcatl en #Coyoacán, #CDMX.
#Conquista #HernanCortes #México
(foto mía)
2- Uno de los pocos monumentos en honor de Hernán Cortés que existen en México está ubicado en un parque público de la alcaldía de Coyocán, #CDMX, muy cerca del Museo de la Intervenciones. Se le conoce como el monumento al Mestizaje.
goo.gl/maps/LRTFDD4x9…
3- Fue terminado en 1982. Una versión dice que fue idea del presidente José López Portillo. Otra, recogida por la revista Proceso, dice que fue mandado hacer por el titular de la entonces delegación de Coyoacán, Lepoldo Sánchez Duarte.
proceso.com.mx/137442/las-tur…
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Alamo_on_the_rise
@AlamoOnTheRise
Trump: Day 693
-Mulvaney New 'Acting' Chief of Staff
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Add...
Day 798 since Donald Trump admitted to sexual assault — yet he’s still in the Oval Office
Add...
Day 649 of NO EVIDENCE produced by Trump that his phones were tapped by Obama.

The FISA warrant Trump referenced targeted Carter Page. #TrumpLies
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