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John Sides @johnmsides
, 5 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
A sizzling series of #HOTTAKES: the expected House and Senate party breakdowns are not that surprising and well within the range of the forecasts. It may be a good/bad night for certain candidates, but overall things look pretty much as expected. 1/x
And while the game-changer narratives are already percolating ("Trump caravan comments worked!"), the simple truth is that people's vote intentions haven't changed that much for months 2/x:…
Yes, immigration attitudes matter more now than in recent elections (…), but that was already true before the caravan. The caravan itself didn't change much per @pete_enns (…) 3/x
Yeah, I know: political science buzzkill and all that. But I see pundits implicilty filtering outcomes through their own idiosyncratic expectations ("It sure felt like it was going to be a better night for Dems/Gillum/whoever") and that's not a great way to think about it. 4/x
The boring story is the more correct story: the outcomes aren't really that unexpected, and stability was more important than change.

This is why there are no political scientists on cable news, @cwarshaw. Zzzz. (5/5)
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