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John Sides @johnmsides
, 5 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
A sizzling series of #HOTTAKES: the expected House and Senate party breakdowns are not that surprising and well within the range of the forecasts. It may be a good/bad night for certain candidates, but overall things look pretty much as expected. 1/x
And while the game-changer narratives are already percolating ("Trump caravan comments worked!"), the simple truth is that people's vote intentions haven't changed that much for months 2/x: washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-ca…
Yes, immigration attitudes matter more now than in recent elections (
nytimes.com/2018/11/05/opi…), but that was already true before the caravan. The caravan itself didn't change much per @pete_enns (washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-ca…) 3/x
Yeah, I know: political science buzzkill and all that. But I see pundits implicilty filtering outcomes through their own idiosyncratic expectations ("It sure felt like it was going to be a better night for Dems/Gillum/whoever") and that's not a great way to think about it. 4/x
The boring story is the more correct story: the outcomes aren't really that unexpected, and stability was more important than change.

This is why there are no political scientists on cable news, @cwarshaw. Zzzz. (5/5)
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I have a new report out about economic distress in the U.S., co-authored with @rp_griffin. This is based on 2018 polling from @DemocracyFund's Voter Study Group. voterstudygroup.org/publications/2…

Here are a few findings. (1/x)
The big problem with measuring views of the economy is partisan bias (news.gallup.com/poll/233576/am…). "Is the economy getting better" correlates with party identification at |r|=.44.

This report uses a 14-question index that is weakly correlated with party identification. (|r|=.11).
Finding #1: Economic distress is higher among people of color than whites. This should be obvious but the focus on the "white working class" obscures it.

In fact, whites without a college degree report *less* distress than blacks *with* a college degree.
Read 7 tweets

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1⃣ Let's take a look at how the Senate works. I've spoken to a decent segment of certain political persuasions to warrant a fresh look. At first, specifically be concerning voting procedures. #Senate ⬇️

#SchumerShutdown #SchoolHouseRock #BuildTheWall @DNC #WeThePeople
2⃣ Aside from Revenue(tax) bills, bills can originate either in the House, the Senate or both simultaneously. When the bill has been polished it goes to a vote. There are two primary types of vote & one that is considered a countermeasure. #Senate ⬇️

#SchumerShutdown @DNC
3⃣ Out of Roll Call, Voice Vote & Division Vote, Voice is most used. The bill is brought to a vote & Senators verbally call off 'Yea' or 'Nay'. The presiding officer mentally tallies the verbal vote as best they can & announces the results. #Senate ⬇️

#SchumerShutdown @DNC
Read 15 tweets
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THREAD: One of the things that really irritates me is the people that spread wild and outrageous conspiracy theories about stuff they obviously know little about. I don’t spend much time arguing with them, because they’re completely convinced their right.
For example, 911 truthers. You can wasted literally weeks arguing with these people and get absolutely nowhere with them. It doesn’t matter how many facts you throw at them, they’ve got an explanation for everything.
The hottest conspiracy on social media right now is the directed energy weapon attack on California. You can find literally tens of videos on Youtube explaining it to you. The bottom line is the government is deliberately destroying homes and killing people.
Read 45 tweets
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1. #Midterms2018 - The Facts:
- To win the #House the #Democrats need 23 more seats: Not easy
- To win the #Senate they need 2 more and successfully defend existing seats (100 seats in total, 2 for each #state): Not easy
- I detect that the #TrumpTrain (#RedWave) runs full speed!
2. #Midterms2018 - #Trump does a lot right:
- "The Base" was well prepared: You see it at all Trump-rallies
- Trump pushes a few emotive topics (illegal #migration): He knows - "Keep it simple, stupid!" #KISS
- The numbers are on his side: #Economy & #JobNumbers great
3. #Midterms2018 - What the #Democrats do wrong:
- Too many damaged goods: #ElizabethWarren (#Fakecahontas), #HillaryClinton despite all the support, over a billion war-chest & #media on her side LOST! But they keep pushing her!
- No single winning face, to win the votes!
Read 7 tweets
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Gather 'round, boys and girls, and get ready to hear the tale of Taffy 3. It's a tale full of bravery, miscalculation, and the fog of war. One of the largest naval battles in history, it has largely slipped from the memory of men. 1/
Our tale begins in October of 1944, as Douglas MacArthur is fulfilling his promise to return to the Philippines. The Japanese Navy, recognizing their final chance to meet the US Navy in epic battle, sortied to meet the US Fleet.2/
The Japanese plan, "Sho-Go" called for three coordinated attacks on the US fleet. The first was Admiral Ozawa's sortie with the Japanese Navy's remaining carriers to lure Admiral Halsey's 3rd Fleet northward away from the invasion beaches.
Read 50 tweets
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1. Nellie Ham Radio
There is a lot of buzz abt Nellie Ohr’s Ham radio license & her uses for it.

May 23rd, 2016, just as the dossier project was kicking into gear, (Steele was only hired in June), Nellie Ohr, at ripe old age of give-or-take 55, got a Technician radio license.
2. There's a bunch of curious things abt Ohr getting an amateur radio license so late in her career.

~Nellie Ohr's professional profile does not show her to be the techie type
3. ~Nellie Ohr doesn’t possess any hacker, computer, or engineering skills
(which is what typically motivates ppl to get an Amateur Radio license)
Read 17 tweets
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1/
 Reuters "Trump approval direction by states". Look at all the red arrows showing his falling approval in so many states
2/
 "80%+ of every single demographic says the economy will be extremely or very important to their midterm vote in November via new @CNN poll:"
👇👇👇
3/
(1/5)
@KurtSchlichter 👇a
townhall.com/columnists/kur…
Read 117 tweets

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