So in terms of Iowa polls it looks like:
* Selzer/DMR/CNN at 9pm-ish tonight
* YouGov/CBS, probably tomorrow morning
* Emerson College, tomorrow night
We've heard reports from readers that make us wonder if there's a 4th poll in the field, but may have been a false positive.
* Selzer/DMR/CNN at 9pm-ish tonight
* YouGov/CBS, probably tomorrow morning
* Emerson College, tomorrow night
We've heard reports from readers that make us wonder if there's a 4th poll in the field, but may have been a false positive.
I'd keep in mind that there's actually been quite a bit of Iowa polling, much of it from high-quality firms. So these polls will matter in our forecasts/average, but not as much as if there had been a total dearth of polling.
The most consequential thing would be if... (cont.)
The most consequential thing would be if... (cont.)
...there's a clear pattern of someone rising or falling across the final ~2 weeks. Our model has been pretty conservative about Klobuchar so far but she's probably closest to showing this pattern and a highly-rated poll showing her gaining could make it more aggressive.
p.s. I don't know what any of these polls say and haven't tried to find out, so please don't take anything I've said on here as a hint.
