Buttigieg leads the state delegate equivalent count in Iowa right now.
Sanders leads the non-binding initial/reallocated preference totals.
I've been reporting both numbers and some are asking why. I want to share my thinking:
Sanders leads the non-binding initial/reallocated preference totals.
I've been reporting both numbers and some are asking why. I want to share my thinking:
The argument for just showing SDEs is that they are tied to national convention delegates and, as you might have heard, it’s all about delegates.
The problem I see is that Iowa’s clout has never really been about delegates at all, since it has so few (41 this year of 3,979).
The problem I see is that Iowa’s clout has never really been about delegates at all, since it has so few (41 this year of 3,979).
This is not a new observation. Since the caucuses began, candidates have spent massive $$ and time on the state (and media has paid massive attention to it) because it's the first indication of what actual voters make of the field -- who's strong, who's weak, etc.
If you've followed this stuff for a while, you get it: Barack Obama's Iowa win in 2008 was not a huge deal because it gave him 18 convention delegates instead of 16 or something. It was because he showed he could win, and in a heavily white state.
So if the main importance of Iowa is not delegates but rather what the results say about who Dem voters are/aren't warming up to, then the question becomes how best to measure it. from 1972 to 2016, there was only one option: The SDE numbers, which was the only thing available.
The SDE is the result of a complex formula that is based on precinct allocations that don't correspond with turnout. So it's possible for someone to win the SDE count even though they had fewer supporters turn up across the state.
But now, for the first time, we have initial preference (who caucus-goers showed up to support) and reallocated preference (what happened when supporters of candidates who missed the 15% threshold in precincts moved to other candidates).
And I think there's a compelling argument that either of these two new metrics gets closer than SDEs to measuring popular support for the candidates.
So I think it's important to present all of the totals, and people can decide for themselves which one matters the most.
So I think it's important to present all of the totals, and people can decide for themselves which one matters the most.
