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State delegate equivalents with new Iowa data
Buttigieg 26.9 (+0.1)
Sanders 25.2 (-)
Warren 18.2 (-0.2)
Biden 15.6 (+0.2)
Klobuchar 12.5 (-0.1)
Final alignment with new Iowa data
Sanders 26.1 (-0.1)
Buttigieg 25.3 (+0.1)
Warren 20.3 (-0.4)
Biden 13.5 (+0.3)
Klobuchar 12.3 (-0.2)
According to The Needle, Buttigieg is up to 86% to win on SDEs. Sanders is 94% to win the first alignment and 60% to win the final alignment. nytimes.com/interactive/20…
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Our post-debate poll with @Ipsos is out!

It has lots of good news for SANDERS, BUTTIGIEG and KLOBUCHAR.

It has really bad news for BIDEN.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/democratic-deb…
@Ipsos SANDERS got the highest overall ratings for his performance.

KLOBUCHAR got the best ratings relative to her pre-debate favorability.

BIDEN and YANG did poorly relative to their pre-debate favorability.
@Ipsos BUTTIGIEG had the biggest increase in the number of voters who are considering him (maybe the most important metric in our poll). KLOBUCHAR and SANDERS also gained here.

BIDEN's numbers fell quite a lot.
Read 5 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Not a super long riff, but a few thoughts on Bloomberg, whose data is now easier to find in our forecast.
fivethirtyeight.com/features/elect…
To repeat for like the 45th time (but tbh I'll probably repeat it 100 more times)…For each candidate, our model forecasts a range of possibilities for *delegates*, including the chance of a majority or plurality of pledged delegates. We are not forecasting the nomination per se.
That matters, because we have the race ending with no one having a delegate majority ~25% of the time. We don't try to forecast who would win the nomination in those cases. fivethirtyeight.com/features/elect…
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
There's a new face in our forecast in a *beautiful* gold color.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-f…
We've always been forecasting Bloomberg FWIW, but he'd been pretty hard to find. He'll now appear along with Sanders, Biden, Buttigieg, Warren as one of the 5 candidates we feature in all our illustrations.
Notice that our forecast actually has Bloomberg getting a decent number of delegates. It's verrrrry skeptical of his ability to get a pledged delegate *majority* because he's starting from behind. But he could certainly accumulate delegates, and be a factor later on.
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Jamie Dupree
@jamiedupree
Been a crazy day on the trail in New Hampshire. Every campaign event has been at a school which seems almost fortified against cell phones and wifi. 1/
It was an interesting weekend in New Hampshire. Here's my story with thumbnails on what I saw for each of the five major Democrats this weekend.

daytondailynews.com/blog/jamie-dup…
Sanders was all over the state. He won big four years ago, and he is the favorite to win on Tuesday. He kept up his criticism of Buttigieg over fundraising from big money Democrats, and Sanders also turned his fire on Bloomberg. 3/
Read 10 tweets
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MSNBC
@MSNBC
NEW: The Iowa Democratic Party on Sunday allocated delegates based on the results of last week’s #IowaCaucuses, giving Pete Buttigieg the largest delegate count, followed closely by Sen. Sanders. on.msnbc.com/31FAeXb
Iowa Democratic caucus results are not actual votes cast. The percentages received by candidates, based on returns of the estimated number of state convention delegates won by each candidate through the caucus process, are known as state delegate equivalents, or SDEs.
Iowa sends 41 pledged delegates to the Democratic National Convention. The allocation of those delegates is based proportionally on the SDE results.
Read 3 tweets
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G. Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
#NEW poll of the 2020 Democratic primary from The Economist and YouGov:

% support among likely voters (change vs last week)

Biden: 24 (-2)
Sanders: 19 (-5)
Warren: 18 (-2)
Buttigieg: 9 (2)
Bloomberg: 9 (4)
Klobuchar: 6 (1)
Yang: 3 (-1)
Gabbard: 3 (0)
Steyer: 2 (1)
Bennet: 1 (1)
Which candidates are Democrats considering voting for? (These numbers are from the past month of polls)

Biden: 48%
Warren: 47%
Sanders: 45%
Buttigieg: 28%
Bloomberg: 22%
Klobuchar: 20%
Yang: 16%
Steyer: 12%
Gabbard: 6%
Bennet: 4%
Patrick: 3%
Who would Democrats be disappointed in as the nominee?
(These numbers are from the past month of polls)

Gabbard: 43%
Bloomberg: 29%
Patrick: 23%
Biden: 23%
Steyer: 22%
Sanders: 22%
Bennet: 21%
Buttigieg: 19%
Klobuchar: 17%
Yang: 17%
Warren: 16%
Read 3 tweets
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G. Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
#NEW poll of the 2020 Democratic primary from The Economist and YouGov:

% support among likely voters (chg vs last week):

Biden: 26 (-3)
Sanders: 24 (6)
Warren: 20 (-1)
Buttigieg: 7 (-1)
Klobuchar: 4 (0)
Bloomberg: 4 (-2)
Yang: 4 (0)
Gabbard: 3 (1)
Steyer: 1 (-2)
Patrick: 1 (0)
Who are Democrats considering voting for?

Biden: 49%
Warren: 48
Sanders: 45
Buttigieg: 28
Klobuchar: 20
Bloomberg: 19
Booker: 18
Yang: 16
Steyer: 12
Castro: 10
Gabbard: 6
Bennet: 4
Patrick: 3
Delaney: 2
Who would they be disappointed to see win the nomination?

Gabbard: 42%
Bloomberg: 31
Delaney: 25
Biden: 23
Steyer: 23
Patrick: 23
Bennet: 21
Sanders: 20
Buttigieg: 19
Yang: 17
Klobuchar: 17
Warren: 15
Read 5 tweets
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G. Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
#NEW poll of the 2020 Democratic primary from The Economist and YouGov:

% support among likely voters (change v last month)
Warren: 28 (+4)
Biden: 25 (+1)
Sanders: 13 (-4)
Harris: 5 (0)
Buttigieg: 5 (-1)
Yang: 3 (+1)
Bullock: 2 (+1)
Klobuchar: 2 (+1)

All else ≤ 1%
% of Democratic primary voters considering voting for each candidate (over last month):

Warren: 55%
Biden: 47
Sanders: 39
Harris: 30
Buttigieg: 28
Booker: 18
O'Rourke: 16
Yang: 13
Klobuchar: 11
Castro: 11

All else < 10%
% of Democratic primary voters who would be disappointed if ___ candidate won the nomination (over the last month):

Williamson: 32
Gabbard: 23
Biden: 22
Delaney: 21
Steyer: 20
Sanders: 19
Bennet: 17
Yang: 17
O'Rourke: 16
Booker: 13
Buttigieg: 11
Warren: 8
Read 7 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth #PrideMonth
@VABVOX
#Biden slumps, #Buttigieg soars, tied with #Sanders and #Warren, #Harris next in benchmark #Iowa poll thehill.com/homenews/campa…
Critical point here is that the MSM is claiming that #Sanders "came within a handful of votes" of #HillaryClinton, when he lost in a landslide of 4M votes, 1k pledged delegates (not SDs) and a dozen states.
2/
This false narrative harms #Sanders--it's meant to highlight how badly he's doing in 2020 and prop up #Biden. But Sanders is actually doing better than in 2016. There are just more players. And Biden is being replaced by a younger centrist, #Buttigieg.
3/
Read 8 tweets

Trending hashtags

#Klobuchar #buttigieg #Biden #caucus #Warren #exvangelicals #CarolineDuSud #Bloombergmentum #NEW #AnitaHill #journalism #Buttigieg #impeachment #consent #LizWarren #Midwest #Dean #HandMarkedPaperBallots #Iowa #IowaCaucus #AmyKlobuchar #SMARTelections #GOP #delay #IncomeInequality
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