I'm curious what our model will do with this one. Moving into a tie with Sanders would not be the worst outcome for Biden under the circumstances. The problem is that NH is likely to be another bad state for him and another good one for Bernie.
When looking at our model over the next few days, keeping in that it's pricing in a bounce for Bernie and Buttigieg and a decline for Biden. So from the model's vantage point, the question is whether the swings are smaller or larger than the ones it's expecting.
That is to say, for instance, you could have a poll showing Buttigieg making some gains, but if he doesn't gain *as much as our model expected* based on Iowa results, it could hurt him in the forecast.
