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Not-quite-final NH polling average shows Sanders 5 points ahead of Buttigieg, largely unchanged from past couple days. Close 3-way battle after that. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/presiden…
We do see some late growth for Klobuchar. But Buttigieg's numbers have been steady so it doesn't seem to be coming at his expense. (It's possible that Buttigieg would be gaining further if not for Klob, I suppose.)
We are not aware of any more NH polls coming but it's a state where late stuff can trickle in.

We are expecting 1-2 national polls in the first half of the day tomorrow (and we could really use nat'l polls) so we'll probably hold the model open for those then freeze after that.
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More from @NateSilver538 see all

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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Average projected delegates through Super Tuesday:

Sanders 608 (41% of delegates thru March 3)
Bloomberg 273 (18%)
Biden 270 (18%)
Buttigieg 157 (10%)
Warren 127 (8%)
Klobuchar 55 (4%)

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-f…
It is important to note that this this reflects an average of many different scenarios and the ranges are very wide.
What it illustrates, though: We're *not* in a 2-candidate race *right now*. We're in a race that has 1 clear but not overwhelming frontrunner, Sanders, and a lot of candidates chasing him, of whom Bloomberg may or may not be the strongest.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
It's a little hard to know the cause and effect here. Clearly Biden would have been in much much better shape with stronger finishes in Iowa and Nevada. Bloomberg's emergence likely has a lot to do with extensive/obsessive media coverage also though.
The ordinary course of events after Iowa and NH *would* involve big problems for Biden. But the candidates who would benefit from that would be Buttigieg, Sanders and maybe a little Klobuchar, not Bloomberg.
To be fair we don't really know what "normal" is in this case since Bloomberg's strategy is new/novel. But the media should recognize that how much time it spends focusing on different candiates, and how it frames them, can itself be a cause of swings & "momentum" in the primary.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
I don't think we know what happens when one candidate (Bloomberg) starts ~6-9 months later than everyone else and hasn't survived the rigors of the process in the same way that everyone else has. There's certainly the chance that grass may turn out not to be greener, after all.
In the past, candidates who started late (think Fred Thompson) have had a notoriously poor track record, although that's usually attributed to a lack of preparation or an inability to build out a robust campaign. Those *don't* seem to be problems in Bloomberg's case.
But I'm surprised at how many Dem elites and elected officials have thrown their weight behind him when he hasn't been battle-tested like other candidates.
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Related threads

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TheValuesVoter
@TheValuesVoter
Something for #IowaCaucus voters to consider:

Trump won in 2016 b/c he won 6 states Obama/Biden had won twice:
- Florida (29 electoral votes)
- Pennsylvania (20)
- Ohio (18)
- Michigan (16)
- Wisconsin (11)
- Iowa (6)

So, how do the Dem candidates poll against Trump here?
If you look at the General Election polls on FiveThirtyEight.com, you can look at the polls that compare various Democratic candidates against Trump in various states.

I checked the polls for the Dems against Trump over the last 3 months.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/?ex_cid=…
If you sum up the polls over the past 3 months and count how many times each candidate beats Trump versus loses to him in polls in these 6 key states, you find:

- Biden beats Trump more often than not in FL, PA, MI and WI.
- Sanders beats Trump more often than not in MI only.
Read 16 tweets
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mathieu gallard
@mathieugallard
🇺🇸🗳️ Dans pile un mois, c’est le début d'une longue et palpitante saison électorale aux #EtatsUnis avec le caucus de l’#Iowa lors duquel 14 candidats vont concourir à l'investiture du parti démocrate. #primaires
🇺🇸🗳️ Au niveau national, peu d'évolutions en un an de campagne :

➡️#Biden reste en tête

➡️Les candidats de l’aile gauche #Sanders et #Warren le suivent à distance

➡️#Buttigieg est le seul autre candidat à se démarquer, les autres faisant (pour l’instant ?) de la figuration
🇺🇸🗳️ Mais les sondages nationaux ont peu d’importance à ce stade : si un candidat crée la surprise lors d’une des premières primaires, il peut impulser une dynamique à sa campagne (le « momentum ») qui l’avantagera lors des scrutins suivants.
Read 41 tweets
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Political Polls
@Politics_Polls
National @Reuters/@Ipsos Poll

Who is the best candidate on..

Healthcare:
Sanders 25
Biden 15
Warren 13
Buttigieg 7
Harris 5
Booker 2

Environment:
Sanders 19
Biden 13
Warren 12
Buttigieg 8
Harris 6
Booker 5

Strong progressive:
Sanders 22
Warren 17
Biden 14
Booker 5
Buttigieg 4
@Reuters @Ipsos Economy/Jobs:
Biden 22
Sanders 18
Warren 11
Buttigieg 7
Harris 6
Booker 2

Immigration:
Biden 17
Sanders 16
Warren 11
Harris 8
Buttigieg 5
Booker 2
@Reuters @Ipsos Can unify the Democratic Party:
Biden 23
Sanders 14
Warren 10
Buttigieg 9
Harris 5
Booker 3

Most likely to beat Trump in the GE:
Biden 30
Sanders 15
Warren 11
Buttigieg 4
Booker 4
Harris 3
Read 4 tweets
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Matt Rogers 🎙
@Politidope
@Civiqs Here is Trump's approval rating after weeks of racist attacks converted into Electoral College format, per @Civiqs daily tracking poll & a new University of Texas poll showing Trump losing TX to Warren, Harris, Sanders & O'Rourke. [projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20190730…] civiqs.com/results/approv…
@Civiqs Here is Donald Trump's current approval rating in all 50 states converted into Electoral College format, per @Civiqs daily tracking poll.

🚨 Trump is now underwater in Florida, Georgia, Texas, Iowa & Utah 🚨 civiqs.com/results/approv…
@Civiqs OH MY! 👀

Here is Donald Trump's current approval rating in all 50 states converted into Electoral College format, per @Civiqs' daily tracking poll. civiqs.com/results/approv…
Read 3 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth #EqualityActNow
@VABVOX
So we seem to have stopped discussing electability when #Bernie started slipping below #Warren and #Harris's favorables topped #Biden's.
Huh.
Maybe women ARE the ticket for 2020.
#Campaign2020
A month from now when the main debate stage is Biden, Bernie, Warren, Harris, Buttigieg, Beto, Klobuchar, Booker, Inslee, Castro and maybe Yang & Williamson, there will be more shifts in the polls.
One issue that will be raised is age.
No one will need to say it--we'll see it.
Read 5 tweets
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Kyle
@HNIJohnMiller
1) Sooooo.... h/t @PoliticalOrgy for pointing this out.

I have no idea WTF Drudge is doing right now.
2) The big story is that Beto is raising just a ridiculous, presidential level amount of money for his Senate campaign in Texas.
3) A race that shows him down beyond polling margins of error. realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/se…
Read 9 tweets

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