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Not a lot of movement. Sanders, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Warren all +1 from yesterday, Biden -1.
I think the consensus of the evidence points toward Buttigieg getting a reasonably big NH bounce after IA and then that bounce holding steady (meaning not still growing, but also not reversing itself) thru the weekend.
You can of course cherry-pick your way to a different conclusion ("he's still surging!!" or "Klobuchar killed his momentum!!") but we have a LOT of NH polls so I'd really advise going with the average here. The other conclusions may be right but we won't know until tomorrow PM.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
It's a little hard to know the cause and effect here. Clearly Biden would have been in much much better shape with stronger finishes in Iowa and Nevada. Bloomberg's emergence likely has a lot to do with extensive/obsessive media coverage also though.
The ordinary course of events after Iowa and NH *would* involve big problems for Biden. But the candidates who would benefit from that would be Buttigieg, Sanders and maybe a little Klobuchar, not Bloomberg.
To be fair we don't really know what "normal" is in this case since Bloomberg's strategy is new/novel. But the media should recognize that how much time it spends focusing on different candiates, and how it frames them, can itself be a cause of swings & "momentum" in the primary.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
I don't think we know what happens when one candidate (Bloomberg) starts ~6-9 months later than everyone else and hasn't survived the rigors of the process in the same way that everyone else has. There's certainly the chance that grass may turn out not to be greener, after all.
In the past, candidates who started late (think Fred Thompson) have had a notoriously poor track record, although that's usually attributed to a lack of preparation or an inability to build out a robust campaign. Those *don't* seem to be problems in Bloomberg's case.
But I'm surprised at how many Dem elites and elected officials have thrown their weight behind him when he hasn't been battle-tested like other candidates.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Yep this is right. If you have a bunch of candidates polling at 14% then it's very very likely that the polls will be slightly off for one or two of them and they'll wind up getting 15%+.
Also polls have undecided voters so someone polling at 14% probably projects to get like 15-16% of the actual vote anyway. And most delegates are awarded at the district level so being below 15% statewide doesn't mean getting completely shut out.
Notwithstanding all of the above, Nevada uses the 15% viability threshold in individual precincts, like Iowa did, which adds additional uncertainty. In theory it could boost Bernie's margin but Bernie did not get a lot of second-choice support in Iowa.
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Richard Baris
@Peoples_Pundit
Yes, Pete Buttigieg has a slight lead with 62% reporting on state delegate equivalents.

Buttigieg 26.9
Sanders 25.1
Warren 18.3
Biden 15.6
Klobuchar 12.6

We can't make a projection yet because we don't know whether it's representative, what's left out.

This was a disservice.
Let's breakdown some of this now that we know more county-by-county.

Pete Buttigieg did better than expected in rural areas and took re-caucus votes media thought would go to Joe Biden.

But it definitely does seem that Bernie Sanders has a lot more vote out. Polk alone is big.
Worth noting, Pete Buttigieg spent a ton of time and held scores of events in Pivot Counties that voted for Barack Obama twice, but pivoted to Donald Trump in 2016.

That's how he's over performing his polling numbers, and of course, the realignment.
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mathieu gallard
@mathieugallard
🇺🇸🗳️ Dans pile un mois, c’est le début d'une longue et palpitante saison électorale aux #EtatsUnis avec le caucus de l’#Iowa lors duquel 14 candidats vont concourir à l'investiture du parti démocrate. #primaires
🇺🇸🗳️ Au niveau national, peu d'évolutions en un an de campagne :

➡️#Biden reste en tête

➡️Les candidats de l’aile gauche #Sanders et #Warren le suivent à distance

➡️#Buttigieg est le seul autre candidat à se démarquer, les autres faisant (pour l’instant ?) de la figuration
🇺🇸🗳️ Mais les sondages nationaux ont peu d’importance à ce stade : si un candidat crée la surprise lors d’une des premières primaires, il peut impulser une dynamique à sa campagne (le « momentum ») qui l’avantagera lors des scrutins suivants.
Read 41 tweets
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Stu Cvrk
@STUinSD
Thread: News Summary from the Week that Was (27 October – 2 November)

1. This is my weekly summary of news that the legacy media and Democrats have obfuscated for partisan political reasons. This week’s list is longer since I’m back in CONUS.
2. Here’s a good one to get started. It’s something that needs to happen waaaay more than it does (confronting lying journalists in public settings!):

<quote>
2A. In what can only be described as an epic moment at Politicon, a political convention with panelists from the left and the right, Brandon Straka of the WalkAway campaign confronted CNN's April Ryan, ….
Read 130 tweets
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FLIP NATION
@FlipNationUSA
#CandidateTweets on #Healthcare
The 20 major dems Bennet to Yang
#Bennet
#Biden
Read 24 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth #PrideMonth
@VABVOX
THREAD
Response to #Biden skipping the California Dems is scathing.

Biden's "refusal to show up only reinforces the idea that he’s an elitist and he is more interested in collecting big checks in CA than being in genuine touch with grassroots activists."
usatoday.com/story/news/pol…
#Buttigieg and #Warren took Biden on.
Buttigieg said that "the riskiest thing we could do is try to play it safe.... In these times, Democrats can no more promise to take us back to the 2000s or 1990s than conservatives can take us back to the 1950s.”

usatoday.com/story/news/pol… …
#Warren: “Some Democrats in Washington believe the only changes we can get are tweaks & nudges.If they dream at all, they dream small.Some say if we’d all just calm down, Republicans will come to their senses. Our country is in a time of crisis. The time for small ideas is over.”
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