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No huge changes, but a bit to my surprise our model didn't actually love that Quinnipiac poll for Sanders with the race looking so messy.

"No majority" chances up and Bloomberg (whom our model hated) starting to get a tiny bit of a pulse.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-f…
Bernie's absolute vote share, both in NH and in national polls, is pretty important IMO.

If he's at like 24 nationally / 28 NH, that's a lot different than if he's at say 30 / 35.
By comparison, Trump was at ~35% nationally heading into Iowa. He slumped to ~30% after losing Iowa then recovered to ~35% after winning NH. The race would have been quite a bit different if he was at 25% instead.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
It's a little hard to know the cause and effect here. Clearly Biden would have been in much much better shape with stronger finishes in Iowa and Nevada. Bloomberg's emergence likely has a lot to do with extensive/obsessive media coverage also though.
The ordinary course of events after Iowa and NH *would* involve big problems for Biden. But the candidates who would benefit from that would be Buttigieg, Sanders and maybe a little Klobuchar, not Bloomberg.
To be fair we don't really know what "normal" is in this case since Bloomberg's strategy is new/novel. But the media should recognize that how much time it spends focusing on different candiates, and how it frames them, can itself be a cause of swings & "momentum" in the primary.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
I don't think we know what happens when one candidate (Bloomberg) starts ~6-9 months later than everyone else and hasn't survived the rigors of the process in the same way that everyone else has. There's certainly the chance that grass may turn out not to be greener, after all.
In the past, candidates who started late (think Fred Thompson) have had a notoriously poor track record, although that's usually attributed to a lack of preparation or an inability to build out a robust campaign. Those *don't* seem to be problems in Bloomberg's case.
But I'm surprised at how many Dem elites and elected officials have thrown their weight behind him when he hasn't been battle-tested like other candidates.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Yep this is right. If you have a bunch of candidates polling at 14% then it's very very likely that the polls will be slightly off for one or two of them and they'll wind up getting 15%+.
Also polls have undecided voters so someone polling at 14% probably projects to get like 15-16% of the actual vote anyway. And most delegates are awarded at the district level so being below 15% statewide doesn't mean getting completely shut out.
Notwithstanding all of the above, Nevada uses the 15% viability threshold in individual precincts, like Iowa did, which adds additional uncertainty. In theory it could boost Bernie's margin but Bernie did not get a lot of second-choice support in Iowa.
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@johnddavidson
Quick thread on the new Quinnipiac poll on @tedcruz - @BetoORourke #txsen race: It shouldn't be so surprising that Cruz is up 54-45, that's the same spread for the Quinnipiac poll as in Sept and Cruz has consistently led by 5+ points in other polls. 1/ poll.qu.edu/texas/release-…
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