Thread by @davidfrum

I put myself this last weekend before the New Hampshire primary through a disturbing thought exercise about the Democratic primary - disturbing, that is, if you hope to replace Donald Trump.

1/x

Subject to the usual limits of personal bias, imperfect knowledge, etc. ...

I ranked candidates by criteria like "would be an effective president" and "could beat Donald Trump in head-to-head competition assuming a united Democratic party."

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All those lists were dominated by the three Bs: Biden, Bloomberg, Buttigieg.

BUT ...

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When you start studying the list "actually in real life probably able to unite the Democratic party" - meaning hold together moderates and leftists; animate both African Americans and anti-Trump suburbanites - the only B atop the list is Biden. 4/x

If Biden falters, there's no coalition candidate, only factional candidates. And Sanders of course heads the biggest faction. 5/x

The Democratic coalition is always potentially larger than the Republican coalition. It is also always less cohesive. Coalition-management is the first job of any Democratic candidate. And right now, the coalition does not seem to want to managed. 6/x

The world would be a different place right now if Bernie Sanders had been the sort of person who, in 2017, could have sat down with Hillary Clinton and made peace with her; raised money for other Democrats of all kinds and generally sought broad acceptability. But not his nature.

Sanders and even more his team always defined their mission as "beating the Establishment Democrats." They never pondered: ok, what happens next? How do I get buy-in from people I view not as partners-in-waiting, but as conquered enemies? 8/x

Maybe the most ominous thing about the Sanders campaign is that it seems to regard Trump 2016 as a replicable model. But a Democrat cannot win the Electoral College with 46% of the vote! 9/x

I'm not a Democrat, and I don't expect the Democratic contest to deliver on my personal preferences. But against background of very strong economy, Trump only gets removed from power if all anti-Trump forces in society find a way to work together. And that only happens ... 9/x

... under leadership that recognizes coalition-building as central to its job. The Sanders candidacy is based upon REJECTING coalition-building as a sell-out. They often give the impression of hating less left-wing Democrats much more than they oppose Trump. 10/x

If Sanders wanted to qualify as a party leader for 2020, he should have sweated and bled for Clinton in 2016 - as Clinton sweated and bled for Obama in 2008. He didn't. If he wins the nomination, he'll then have to ask others to do for him what he would not do for them. 11/x

It's going to be a tough job to save the country. It will demand the best of everyone - and some sacrifices of first preferences for the greater good. -END-