(FACT) Of the eight candidates in the BOSTON GLOBE and EMERSON polls of New Hampshire from February 6-7, only *two* increased their standing poll-to-poll: Pete Buttigieg and Elizabeth Warren—who many would call the top moderate and top progressive option for New Hampshire voters. 
PS/ Obviously comparing apples to apples—how candidates perform in the same poll on successive days before the New Hampshire primary—is critical. But I also find the results interesting because Buttigieg and Warren are both strong compromise candidates in a heavily divided party.
PS2/ I'm very fond of Bernie, and—for different reasons—Biden. I worry about Bernie's health, that he calls himself a "socialist" when he's actually a social democrat, and that much of the party won't ever support him. Biden has lost about 25 steps. But *Warren and Buttigieg*...?
PS3/ Bloomberg runs very strong against Trump—I like that. I also, frankly, think it's *wholly unacceptable* for America to replace one billionaire with another at a time our politics are corrupted by billionaires and most Americans are being left behind by the billionaire class.
PS4/ Klobuchar makes an excellent senator, and every time I hear her speak, that's what I think—she makes an excellent senator. She lacks the charisma to build the movement needed to win the executive branch back. Buttigieg and Warren are, in their very different ways, inspiring.
PS5/ There is no perfect candidate—Buttigieg has work to do to reach out to nonwhite voters, and Warren has work to do to further underscore her electability—but I find it odd US media portrays chaos in the Democratic Party when these two were Top 3 in IA and are now Top 3 in NH.
PS6/ The chances of a brokered convention are high; the party is divided about 60-40 between those who want a progressive and moderate candidate; and the odds of a unity ticket are therefore astronomical. My view is that America could do much worse than a Warren/Buttigieg ticket.
PS7/ A thought about where the Democratic candidates stand with nonwhite voters: only 2 of 8 are popular, Biden with black voters and Sanders with Latino voters. But name recognition continues to be a big part of these two candidates' appeal to voters still well off from voting.
PS8/ Even now, South Carolina is weeks away. We'll see big movement in the polls based on how voters in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada pick—*and* as South Carolina voters pay even closer attention as their vote draws near. Those who say nonwhite support is locked in are foolish.
PS9/ I'm *extremely* tired of reading people's analysis of who has nonwhite support when we have major name-recognition issues for certain candidates *and* the South Carolina vote is *weeks* away. This same sleight-of-hand was pulled on *Sanders* back in 2016. I remember it well.
PS10/ African-American Democratic strategists who position themselves as experts in African-American voting trends have long said that black voters take a long time to trust a candidate—for reasons that historically couldn't *possibly* be more justified. It's just *smart voting*.
PS11/ What those trends suggest is that we should stop trying to speculate on where nonwhite voters will land with certain candidates when those candidates are still largely unknown and haven't proven themselves with wins yet. To do otherwise simply favors big—and reliable—names.
PS12/ When I write about anyone but Biden my comments get flooded by people presuming I'm ignoring the simple fact—and it is a fact—that black voters are the backbone of the Democratic primary-voter base. I'm sick of hearing that BS, when I'm just saying history is being misread.
PS13/ In 2016 Sanders was *always* popular among younger nonwhite voters, and gained popularity among older nonwhite voters—particularly Latinos—over time. But moderates used him not having proven himself a winner and being less known to paint him as "unpopular" with nonwhites.
PS14/ A better—more honest—approach in 2016 would've been to acknowledge that *all* candidates must a) prove themselves electable (partly by winning primaries) and b) establish high name recognition among voters, before they will receive support from a broad Democratic coalition.
PS15/ So the line that the moderate Buttigieg can't ever appeal to nonwhite voters is as much a trick to favor other candidates via false rhetoric as the very same line was when it was used against the *progressive* Sanders in 2016. I don't like to see this same trick used twice.
PS16/ Biden's support among black voters in SC will collapse if he places 4th in NH and 4th in NV after finishing 4th in IA. The idea that he has some locked-in support among black voters when many other candidates have a more attractive portfolio for *all* demographics is folly.
PS17/ What I try to do is ignore the false rhetoric and look at a candidate's charisma, intelligence, integrity, empathy, vision, courage, temperament and ability to build a movement. Most of the Democrats have values/views I favor—though some go further with both than do others.
PS18/ Buttigieg and Warren are—by this measure—the most impressive candidates, and I find it silly, ahistorical, even offensive to try to gauge *far* too prematurely what appeal they might have to blocs of voters whose day is still weeks away. That's a *game* intended to punk us.
PS19/ In any case—separate from all I've already said—Granite Staters like me have a long history of being idiosyncratic, iconoclastic, and unwilling to blindly follow Iowa's logic. They want leaders who change the frame.
But in this case, 2 of Iowa's top 3 meet that definition.
But in this case, 2 of Iowa's top 3 meet that definition.
PS20/ I hope/expect Granite Staters will do what we've always done: make good use of the fact that the size of our state—and the average education level of our citizens—positions us well to take the measure of these folks up close and consider their qualities, not empty rhetoric.
CONCLUSION/ Few Granite Staters vote for someone because they're from nearby—as our state has big rivalries with *all* its bordering states. (As anyone who lives here knows—and I'm *understating* things.) I see Buttigieg and Warren as having special purchase with our voters. /end
