Thread by @gelliottmorris

#NEW I wrote about "electability" and the 2020 Democratic primary for the paper this week. We combined political science and polling data and found that a moderate Dem with strength among working-class whites has the best chance against Trump.

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economist.com/united-states/…

The 2020 election is likely to be close. Trump's approval rating & GDP growth suggest that he'll win about 49% of the two-party vote, per our modeling. He's clearly competitive, especially when Democrats need to win the popular vote by about ~2.5pts to win the electoral college.

So the "electability" of the candidates is a particular concern for Democrats.

So what do we know about who is more likely to win general elections?

1. Moderates do better, both down-ballot and in presidential races. This is because

(A) They win more swing voters

AND

(B) Because ideologues juice turnout for the other party

Moderates have advantage BOTH in persuasion and mobilization, in other words.

We think that (B) is especially important, so let me just reiterate here.

The typical argument for ideologues is that the "fire up" the base. That's true! But they fire up the other side even more. This will be esp. important in 2020 with turnout expected to exceed 60%.

Trump will already be energizing Democrats, in other words—so it's unclear what advantage an ideologue actually brings in terms of "firing up" the base.

2. We know that a candidate who can appeal both to racially resentful/anti-immigrant whites AND non-white voters will have an advantage this year. Surveys of the Democratic primary show Joe Biden does nearly 30 percentage points better among high-RR whites than other candidates.

3. A big part of Trump's victory in 2016 came from a surge in support from low-income & non-college white voters, esp. in close states. His advantage was due both to them swinging right & turning out more than they did in 2012. We think this is b/c he campaigned against elites.

Given these three factors, who is the most "electable" Democrat?

Joe Biden best fits the above theories, though his ties to Washington are concerning among voters who hate elites. Sanders could do better with them, but his ideology is perhaps a bigger punishment.

The data clearly show Biden is most "electable."

1. He does better than Sanders against Trump nationally and in swing states

2. YouGov’s polling reveals that voters perceive ALL the major Democratic contenders EXCEPT Joe Biden as MORE ideologically extreme than Donald Trump.

If Democrats want to win in 2020, Biden will boost their chances. But he's an imperfect candidate who leaves *A LOT* to be desired. Read this para before flaming my mentions:

Many thanks to @cwarshaw & @cmMcConnaughy, who sent along some good thoughts for the piece. Corrine's were esp. helpful when thinking about coalitions. We'll write more on that later.

Thanks to @A_agadjanian for doing good experiments on RR & the primary

& to YouGov for data!

@cwarshaw @cmMcConnaughy @A_agadjanian Again the piece is here:
economist.com/united-states/…

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