Imperial estimate only 10% of new cases of #Coronavirus are detected in China, maybe up to 25% elsewhere. That means 50,000 new cases each day in China at present.
They believe the epidemic will peak in Wuhan in one month and in China in two months. The rest of the world may not peak for 3-4 months. Limited evidence of impact of control measures to isolate severe cases because mild cases maintain the epidemic.
Lower death rates outside China probably reflect the time it takes to die- many cases survive up to 20 days or more before death.
We must assume the epidemic will spread in a similar way outside China given the lack of effective control measures.
