Thread by @stephenkinsella

Right. Bit of a #GE2020 thread--900 words or so--on why I believe @sinnfeinireland not only should but *must* go into government, inspired by Bertie Ahern, but with some numbers. (I know, I know). Bear with me.

SF is the most popular party in the country with over 24% of the popular vote. That's a bare fact no one can dispute. You've heard the talking points about everyone being surprised by that including them, I won't rehash them, but the change is remarkable & should be acknowledged

What I think is interesting is the 'excess' demand for SF amongst voters. Listening to the counts come in yesterday I was struck by the size of the first preference vote coming in for SF. The supply of SF candidates clearly didn't meet voter demand. But by how much?

This chart shows the first preference surplus as a percentage of the constituency quota. Think about it as a measure of the excess demand for SF. The google sheet it comes from is here. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d… (ht google sheet pope @gavreilly)

Clearly almost a quarter of voters are saying they want SF in power. The mandate--the increase in vote share--is with them. The seat distribution obviously might limit that ambition, but I don't think it should, and the sheer weight of these first prefs is one indication why.

Think about that replicated across the country with more candidates. People went on holidays and got voted in with an SF badge, ffs. The demand for SF is enormous. Just because the candidates weren't there doesn't mean that should be ignored.

On @drivetimerte Mary Wilson spoke to former Taoiseach Bertie Ahern, who argued SF needed to be in govt because it was-his phrase-the will of the people, that FG and FF have in a sense, lost the election, and that Micheál Martin needed to listen to that democratic expression.

I agree with Bertie.

We are in the upside-down here lads.

Moving on:

The most natural-if not comfortable-coalition now is FF+FG. Combined they represent more of a percentage of the national vote at c. 42%. They would govern from a platform of policy stability. Both parties are full of smart people like @PaschalD who want to do right by the country

But this campaign has been about housing and change. Knocking on doorsteps, TDs have to have felt that. While FG and FF offer stability on a range of policy outcomes, SF offers change. If SF don't deliver on that, if they are seen to betray their voters, they will get Labour'd.

SF know that. I read their manifesto very carefully for @TheCurrency. They surely know large parts of it are not deliverable within a coalition. So some 'betrayal' is going to be priced in. If they deliver on housing, however, they will probably be OK. But that's 100k houses.

Similar levels of 'betrayal' would need to take place in FF, whose leader categorically said he wouldn't go into power with SF after the election. But that's the only combination that makes sense, I think. Otherwise we're in for a second general election. But let's talk houses.

Who pays for all the houses? You campaign in poetry. You govern in spreadsheets. The economy has to deliver the funds for FF/SF to spend on housing and health. We assumed that away in this election because of where we are in the cycle. In that respect #GE2020 was a rerun of 2007.

Think about Ireland as having 2 parts, an international one and a domestic one. #GE2020 was *all* about the domestic. The international one is going well-for now. Tasking FF with keeping that all going, tasking SF with domestic ministries to reinvigorate them genuinely might work

So think @mmcgrathtd in Finance (Taxation, international affairs), @pearsedoherty in DPER (Spending, capital projects). That kind of idea.

It might also respect the fact that 76% of ppl *didn't* vote for SF. Service delivery is neither linear nor simple nor is it speedy. SF know that. They will need to manage the expectations of their voters in that respect. The people are not forgiving of broken promises.

The people are also going to have to face up to SF's grim past, its weird internal structures, its personality. It has been forgotten in this election, because elections are about the future. But it is there and must be reckoned with as we get to 2022/23.

Final thought. Samuel Beckett said finding a form to accommodate the mess was the artist's job. It's our politician's job now too.

Update1: interesting stat from @AdrianKavanagh. Total number of SF surplus votes at this election - excluding those that could have been transferred to a SF running mate is over 118,000. That’s approx. 8 - 10 seats.

Update 2: I discussed 2 groupings above. FF/SF and FF/FG/Greens/etc. A colleague pointed out there is a third: A minority coalition of SF/Green/SD/Labour/Others. It avoids FF red line of governing with SF but might be v. unstable internally as well as dependent on FF or FG.

It would be the newest of new politics. @Michael_O_Regan would be delighted I’m sure!

@Michael_O_Regan Update 3: I’ve updated the ‘excess‘ spreadsheet and graph, it is here: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d… May thanks to Prof.
@sheilakillian
and @ah_lads for the corrections, am always open to reducing my errors!