Since everyone else has become a supply chain expert in the last two weeks, I figured I’d jump in. Because, you know… why not?
There are tons of questions brewing, some legitimate and some outlandish, about the ability of the health supply chain to withstand and even support the #2019-nCoV outbreak. (SN: honorable mention to scientists & journalists not jumping to speculation. I see and appreciate you.)
A few things to note: we’re not talking about 1 supply chain. The “medical” supply chain is in fact several supply chains. Let’s make this easy & say there are 3 things to think about: the movement of raw materials (including API), the pharma chain, & med-surgical supply.
Commercial break for a snarky lesson: this might come as a surprise but gowns, masks, syringes and pills, biologics are not a part of the same upstream supply chain. Sometimes they are distributed similarly but there’s a lot of variation there, too. This is important.
An outbreak like #2019-nCoV will surge demand globally for product to help manage the outbreak, largely on the med-surg side. An outbreak in China is going to raise concerns about the stability of the production of pills and other things as well, largely the raw materials side.
Another driver of demand is hysteria and its related behaviors. No, your grandma probably doesn’t need an N-95 mask to go to bingo. Also, your hospital or health system over-ordering by 500% is also an unhelpful action to the broader system.
There are checks and systems in place to help manage these behaviors and the disproportionate impact they can have on product availability. Insert dreaded words like “fair share allocation” and the “fair and reasonable use” that @DrTedros mentions.
^Those practices are important because… said simply… y’all don’t always know how to act.
The important part of this is understanding, and projecting, demand. Again, globally. You don’t know how much you need, or if you have enough, until you have solid projections of demand. Without a sense of demand you can’t determine if you have sufficient supply.
Sounds basic, but I’ve spent at least 2,872% of my life explaining this for the last two weeks. (Percentage not based on science.)
Our focus right now should be resilience in the med-surg supply chain, including guidance to help facilities prepare, conserve, & manage existing stores. Also includes working with that chain to understand the current processes in place & their plans/ability to boost production.
(Another honorable mention: there are teams doing this. I see and appreciate you as well.)
The secondary focus – in curbing the outbreak, not in importance – is ensuring that the pharma chain remains stable. This is distinct & focused on protecting workforces, esp China, & maintaining the flow of products. Another reason transportation flows matter.
Working with actors in the supply chain, & not just mining for data that may not shed light, is important, because while things are dynamic. Getting snapshots of data don’t shed light on the key operations and factors that answer the ultimate question:
How do we work together to ensure the stability of the health sector during this outbreak?
(Emphasis on “together”, because again, y’all don’t always know how to act.)
(Emphasis on “together”, because again, y’all don’t always know how to act.)
The outbreak is going to strain many parts of society. It already has. But focusing on the granularity of one component (in the wrong ways) of a crucial sector isn’t the solution. It could actually compound the problem.
