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Friendly thread to remind you that nobody knows what an "electable" president is, so you should just vote for who you want to be president. fivethirtyeight.com/features/youll…
Warren will unite the party.
Bernie will fire up the base.
Biden will reach Trump voters.
Buttigieg & Klobuchar will speak to middle America.

All candidates have these & other plausible electability arguments. All also have flaws! No one is more of a sure thing than another.
McGovern in '72 & Mondale in '84 were fire up the base liberals. Both lost.

Dukakis in '88 & Kerry in '04 were safe picks to appeal to conservatives. Both lost.

A guy named "Barack" beat the establishment & won. Then a wildly unqualified extremist TV host did the same.
The world is dark and scary right now. We want some hint of certainty. But we can't have it.

So do yourself & the country a favor: keep it simple. Just vote for who you want to be president. If they get the nomination, great! If not, work your butt off to win in November anyway.
And if you're looking for info on where the candidates stand on the issues, and their commitment to grassroots power, check out the Indivisible Scorecard: scorecard.indivisible.org /end
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Ezra Levin
@ezralevin
It's a disastrous day for our democracy. Forgive the long thread. Short version: any candidate who thinks we can just go back to how things were pre-Trump is dangerously deluded.
This vote is both devastating & unsurprising. Republicans aren't interested in truth. They're interested in saving their own political hides. What this sham trial demonstrates is a clear and terrible truth: the threat to our democracy is much, much bigger than just Donald Trump.
That shouldn’t be a surprise. We’ve seen the warning signs for a long time. We saw Mitch McConnell stonewall President Obama’s Supreme Court nominee, Merrick Garland.
Read 22 tweets
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Ezra Levin
@ezralevin
Happy Sunday! I do my best to learn from history, so here's a little history thread I think is relevant to this article. politico.com/news/2020/01/1…
The history is the big fight during the 1948 Dem Convention over whether to include a strong plank on civil rights. At a higher level, the fight was whether to "play it safe" for electability, or imagine a better party and fight for it. So it seems awfully relevant this year.
Now, the 1948 Dem convention was an anxious convention. All the Dems were very scared that the Dem nominee (Truman) was going to lose.

(This feeling held through election day, giving rise to the most famous pic of bad polling in US history.)
Read 16 tweets
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Ezra Levin
@ezralevin
HUGE DAY for Indivisible. Today we launch our Presidential Candidate Scorecard! It evaluates candidates in 3 ways:
1) Grassroots power
2) Day-one democracy agenda
3) Policy platform

@ewarren tops at 95%; Trump at bottom with 0%. Read on for more [thread]: scorecard.indivisible.org
Other candidates score well in one or more areas. @JulianCastro and @BernieSanders have very strong immigration policies. @CoryBooker also has a good overall policy platform. @PeteButtigieg has a strong democracy plan.

@ewarren scores top because she scores high in all areas.
At 95%, @ewarren most represents the values and positions of Indivisible. She has a visionary policy platform, a commitment to building grassroots power, and a focus on really fixing our democracy. That's what we need to defeat both Trump and the forces that allowed him to rise.
Read 7 tweets

Related threads

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mathieu gallard
@mathieugallard
🇺🇸🗳️ Dans pile un mois, c’est le début d'une longue et palpitante saison électorale aux #EtatsUnis avec le caucus de l’#Iowa lors duquel 14 candidats vont concourir à l'investiture du parti démocrate. #primaires
🇺🇸🗳️ Au niveau national, peu d'évolutions en un an de campagne :

➡️#Biden reste en tête

➡️Les candidats de l’aile gauche #Sanders et #Warren le suivent à distance

➡️#Buttigieg est le seul autre candidat à se démarquer, les autres faisant (pour l’instant ?) de la figuration
🇺🇸🗳️ Mais les sondages nationaux ont peu d’importance à ce stade : si un candidat crée la surprise lors d’une des premières primaires, il peut impulser une dynamique à sa campagne (le « momentum ») qui l’avantagera lors des scrutins suivants.
Read 41 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Bernie is the 3rd most likely candidate to win the nomination IMO.

But I don't think he's in Warren's (or Biden's) tier. Here's why.

fivethirtyeight.com/features/there…
Warren is now ~4 points ahead of Bernie in post-debate national polls. But that's not the only reason she's more likely to win the nomination. Her polling is much more robust than his overall, including stronger numbers in Iowa, more momentum, and better net favorability ratings.
And from any sort of non-polling/"Party Decides" perspective, she's a MUCH more plausible nominee. Running against your own party, like Sanders, is a REALLY hard way to be nominated. Sanders fans won't like this, but those friendly relationships with the D establishment help her.
Read 3 tweets
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San Diego California National Party
@SanDiegoCNP
So, the @potus' obsession with our region takes his eye off of the ball.
Unless that is intentional; in that case, it's part of the #Trump2020 campaign.
politico.com/story/2019/01/…
systemic vulnerabilities in the U.S' #elections systems have been a poorly kept secret; many in the U.S. knew about it before #Putin did.
politico.com/story/2018/07/…
Read 6 tweets
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GreatGameIndia
@GreatGameIndia
#THREAD
Today Pink Legacy diamond from platinum necklace donated by Maharaja of Mysore to Tirumala Tirupati Temples known as 'Leonardo da Vinci of Diamonds' was auctioned by Christie's at Geneva despite our letter to PMO & temple mahant's warnings. But how did it reach there?
In its 251 years in business, Christie's sold only 4 such diamonds weighing more than 10 carats, this #TTD diamond was almost 20 carats and sold for a record $70 million to Harry Winston. But no one has bothered to ask still how did this diamond get there? abc.net.au/news/2018-11-1…
According to British auction house Christie's this Tirumala Tirupati temples diamond once belonged to the Oppenheimer diamond family. But how did this diamond reach there from #TTD? And what is this Oppenheimer family? We warned about this in detail to our PMO early this year.
Read 14 tweets
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Sahil Kapur
@sahilkapur
This myth needs to go away. National polls in 2016 weren't far off.

Final RCP average: Clinton+3.2
Actual result: Clinton+2.1
Don't let "yeah but 2016" become a blanket refutation of polls. National '16 polls were reasonably accurate. Various state polls (i.e. in FL/OH/IA) also showed a Trump edge; big miss was a bunch of Midwest polls (i.e. PA/MI/WI) failing to capture late-deciders breaking for Trump.
Here, via @NateSilver538's autopsy of 2016 polls, is some exit data. Midwestern voters who decided late broke ~bigly~ for Trump and arguably made him president.

fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-f…
Read 3 tweets

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