Now that we’re saying the quiet part out loud the big difference between Bernie & Warren is the idea of starting “strong” with full M4A. But it’s not actually strong when Republicans can force an embarrassing vote exposing your opening bid as only having ~10 votes. And they will.
The current Senate version of M4A has about 11 cosponsors. If Republicans control the Senate, they’ll immediately bring it up for a vote, and it will fail in embarrassing fashion for President Bernie. Not exactly a strong opening bid!
If Dems control the Senate, Republicans will demand a vote on M4A as the cost of moving forward on anything. Dems can resist, but dodging will expose that they don’t have the votes on full M4A. Rs will have a field day. Not exactly a strong opening for President Bernie, either.
Could do. But my point is that the vote on M4A is a weak point, not a strength. As POTUS, it’s bad to lose half your caucus on your signature proposal. Also, passing a strong public option plus a lot of other good stuff via reconciliation is Warren’s plan.
A lot of this depends on what kind of coattails a revolution has. A Warren or Bernie victory would shift the political landscape dramatically - no doubt. But even a revolution, where Bernie wins and Dems take back the Senate, won't net you 40ish votes. That's just fantasy land.
So pick your fighter: Warren & Bernie are both great. But there was a lot of drama on this, and if you decided for Bernie on the theory that his approach will lead to passage of full M4A, maybe think again. Their approaches are nearly identical, except Bernie's is probably worse.
How will this get votes? If Bernie spends his first 100 days planning mass actions against ~40 Dem senators just to unify his own caucus behind his signature proposal, it'll be a yearlong story of a party in chaos while Republicans laugh their asses off.
If you think mass actions can pressure enough Republicans, remember that Senate Rs can assemble the 41 votes they need to block legislation in the Senate purely through senators who represent states that Trump won by 20% or more. They're impervious to pressure from the left.
Also! I forget who made this point, but when all the drama was happening, some argued that you need to go all or nothing ASAP, because legislative success does not beget leg success. Which is ahistorical. Civil Rights & Great Society were successive bills building on each other.
Because Bernie will spend the general election tacking to the center on M4A and signaling compromise, as both he and AOC have made clear. And the way downballot Dems, including senators, will adjust to his nomination is by distancing themselves from M4A.
Senators serve six-year terms. They’re staggered, so only a third of the Senate is up for re-election in any given cycle. In 2022, only ~12 Dem senators will be up for re-election. Even if you primary all of them and win, you’re still ~25 votes short.
