Thread by @higginsdavidw

If Ireland 🇮🇪 is heading for its first "Grand Coalition", then we better have a look at how other countries have gone about it. #ge2020 #twip

Yes, I have a data table. 📊

And yes, this is a [thread]. 😎

Let's begin. 🏃‍♂️

1/

So the first thing that jumps out is that there is no "rotating Chancellor" or "rotating Prime Minister".

The party that holds the most seats gets to appoint the Head of Government. 🏆

That's true even when the government parties have near-equal seats in parliament.

2/

That's not to say that FF and FG couldn't come to an arrangement on a "rotating Taoiseach", it's just that it was never tried in Austria 🇦🇹, Netherlands 🇳🇱 or Germany 🇩🇪.

It would be a *first* among modern European coalitions 🇪🇺.

3/

Cabinet seats are typically split out among parties depending on their share of seats in parliament. ⚖️

Most coalitions do this.

An Irish Grand Coalition will probably do the same.

4/

The big point (really big point) about Grand Coalitions is what happens to the 2 big parties at the next general election.

To put it mildly...

They get crushed. ☠️⚰️

5/

The total decline in vote share (both parties) at the following general election is *over 10 percent* in most of the examples.

To translate that to Ireland, it would mean FF+FG losing 16 *more* seats at the following election (10% of 160)

6/

The one exception is Austria's most recent grand coalition.

The centre-right OVP party went *up* in support.

But two things went in their favour:
1. They collapsed the coalition
2. They got a 31 year old new leader, who didn't carry the "baggage" from the old coalition.

7/

So the conclusion I draw from this is:
A. Neither FF or FG have any incentive to form a grand coalition.
B. If they do, they will each want to be the one to collapse it.

!!!

8/

I also want to look at *why* these European Grand Coalitions form in the first place.

In short, it's all because of populist parties.

9/

Most of Austria's post-war governments have been Grand Coalitions.

They're used to it.

The nationalist Freedom Party (FPO) has held >10% of seats for many decades now.

So either the populists enter coalition, or the 2 big parties govern from the centre.

10/

People like to think linearly about the rise of populist parties.

But in Austria, FPO were big in the 1990s, before falling.

They grew big this decade, but fell back again at elections last year.

The 2 big parties, despite Grand Coalition, have remained the 2 big parties!

11/

In Germany, the decline of the 2 big parties (black and red) has gone everywhere. The Greens are the *big* winners now, but the populist Linke and AfD parties have also taken vote share too.

If this holds into the next election, then the big 2 will no longer be the big 2!

12/

The scenario that FF and FG will want to avoid is what I call "political Dutch disease".

Their equivalent of @labour lost 29 seats at the last election, sending it from being the 2nd largest party to the 7th largest party.

SEVENTH

Just let that thought sink in...

13/

But, the upside of the Dutch example is that politics stayed within the centre.

People were *very* afraid of the nationalist Geert Wilders being big enough to form a government.

With only 5 more seats, he was miles away.

Politics stayed in the centre (again).

14/

So I don't think that Grand Coalition is the big *win* for Sinn Féin that people anticipate (more linear thinking).

There's every chance that FF/FG/Greens would lead to a revival of @labour, growth for @SocDems, and even a new centrist party....

15/

Or, having an exclusively left-wing opposition leads to the emergence of a significant party to the *right* of Fine Gael.

So to finish up.

An Irish Grand Coalition - Be careful what you wish for!

16/16

[end]