Thread by @Trinhnomics

Good morning from @Trinhnomics ' desk :-) Back to office this week after WFH & greeted by this epic view & rather clear sky - u can see details of the mountains beyond. Btw, beyond those mountains is mainland China as I'm in Kowloon side. 🌞🌄👩🏻‍💼🤗👍🏻

China just lowered MLF by 10bps to 3.15% from 3.25% even w/ higher CPI at 5.4% because economic activities are much worse.

While the weather & air in Hong Kong improved, can't say the same about Asian economic data in Q4 '19 (if u think it's bad, wait until Q1 2020)😱🥶. Ready? Japan GDP FELL -6.3% qoq saar on well bad policy of VAT hike & contraction of biz spending. Yes, bad idea to tax consumption

But Japan is not alone in reporting underwhelming economic output, Thailand Q4 19 GDP disappoints too at 1.6%YoY. And yes, that was 2019, wait until u see Q1 2020 data w/ all that tourism decline by Chinese tourists.

OK Singapore...

Singapore reported a contraction of January electronic exports of -13% (better than December -21% but still double digits fall). Wait until you see February data. Singapore grows via external demand via trade of merchandise & services of trade so not going to be a rounding error.

Thailand cuts GDP target for 2020 to a lower range of 1.5% to 2.5%. It won't be the only one downgrading GDP forecasts for 2020 - everyone in Asian will be doing this but the degree of contagion will differ.

#Breaking Nintendo is likely to suffer global switch shortages from #coronavirus

Even the fun at home is impacted. Yikes😬. Corona virus infecting global electronic, auto & textile supply chain 🚗👕🎮🦠

👋🏻 Hello from the other side 🇭🇰🌞🌄👍🏻 View from @natixis APAC 🤗, not bad, not bad.

@natixis Did I mention that Singapore lowered GDP projection to -0.5% to 1.5% in 2020 (yep pretty wide range here) on the virus & high degree of uncertainty on duration of impact.

SGD has weakened -3.1%, the WORST in Asia since 20 Jan 2020.

@natixis But it's not alone - the Thai baht not too far away due to Chinese tourism decline & also South Korea won on supply chain & Chinese demand impact & obvs Australian dollar on commodity prices & volume decline & the Malaysian ringgit on both commodity & manufacturing disruption 🥶

@natixis Who is more immune from this virus? Well, well, well the Philippine peso!!! Yep! IDR & INR not doing too badly. Vietnam too as massive supply chain disruption buffered by strong growth rates & FDI inflows.

@natixis And yes, the dollar is King again, long live the dollar!🙇🏻‍♀️

DXY = 99.1 (mostly v EUR) & although Asian FX not included in DXY, u know that only PHP, JPY & minorly HKD rallied vs USD (although JPY lost some today on that big GDP miss). Why tax consumption when u have DEPOPULATION?