Thread by @trengriffin

1/ That only "high band" is "true" 5G isn't even wrong. 5G isn't a frequency. It's a new technology (AKA, "New Radio").

"The economics work for providers to cover some 80% of the world’s population with low- to mid-band 5G networks by 2030..." fortune.com/2020/02/20/5g-…

2/ "In the early 1980s AT&T asked McKinsey to estimate how many cellular phones would be in use in the world at the turn of the century. The consultancy concluded that the total market would be about 900,000.” google.com/amp/s/amp.econ… 900,000 were added every three days by 1999.

3/ The core mistake of the botched estimate was McKinsey assuming customers would always use a land line phone if one was available. McKinsey didn't understand the value of mobility.

This error allowed McCaw Cellular buy radio spectrum at a substantial discount to its value.

4/ McKinsey takes less risk with a survey than a prediction: "Operators see a marginally positive business case, expect rollout at scale to take until 2022, and don’t think the increase in capital-expense-to-sales ratio will be as big as skeptics claim." mckinsey.com/industries/tec…

5/ Many wireless industry announcements that would have happened at the now cancelled MWC in Barcelona are about to appear.

"The global 5G value chain is projected to generate $3.6 trillion in economic output and support 22.3M jobs worldwide by 2035." sdxcentral.com/articles/news/…