Well, you know all the caveats about early entrance polls.
But if they're anything in the ballpark, then not only is Sanders en route to a decisive victory, but he'd have a very good chance to win a clear majority of delegates at stake
But if they're anything in the ballpark, then not only is Sanders en route to a decisive victory, but he'd have a very good chance to win a clear majority of delegates at stake
The early exits, which you can see here, show Sanders with 35% of the vote and ahead by around 20 percentage points.
That said, big caveats about early entrance data in general, let alone the early v. eday voting twist.
cnn.com/election/2020/…
That said, big caveats about early entrance data in general, let alone the early v. eday voting twist.
cnn.com/election/2020/…
If the result was anything like this, the key is that Sanders could claim an outright majority of the vote (and therefore delegates) among qualifying candidates over 15% statewide or by CD, and there isn't even a guarantee that other candidates will always breach the 15%
For instance, even if two other candidates breach 15 percent statewide and in every district--not at all assured--I'd still guess Sanders would have a good shot to get half of delegates or more, especially since realignment will probably pad his vote share more than the rest.
The key factor in whether you gain on realignment, in the aggregate, is how often you breach 15%.
At 35%, you almost always do--so Sanders gain.
At 15%, 50/50, and you don't gain so much.
At 5%, almost never, and you fall to like <2% or whatever
At 35%, you almost always do--so Sanders gain.
At 15%, 50/50, and you don't gain so much.
At 5%, almost never, and you fall to like <2% or whatever
