With Sanders up to 71% chance to win the most delegates in the FiveThirtyEight forecast, about the same as FiveThirtyEight's chance for Clinton to win in '16, let's flip the board around for a second and think about the challenges Sanders still faces (even though he's favored)
One thing that looms, for me, is that the state polling has not been great for Sanders. Here's every poll completed post-NH.
Yeah, he's near 30% in national polls, but where is that happening at the state level? Maybe the state polling is off? Maybe his states are missed?
Yeah, he's near 30% in national polls, but where is that happening at the state level? Maybe the state polling is off? Maybe his states are missed?
Either way, Super Tuesday presents some real opportunities for a hypothetical rival.
Over all, it's a pretty average day for Sanders, but that's mainly bc of CA. Most states are below average for him (in the south) and a few decent states for him have home state rivals (MN/MA).
Over all, it's a pretty average day for Sanders, but that's mainly bc of CA. Most states are below average for him (in the south) and a few decent states for him have home state rivals (MN/MA).
It wouldn't take much for Sanders to lose a majority of states on Super Tuesday. He's no better than ~tied in NC/VA/TN/AR/OK/AL/MA/MN. He's probably ok in CA/CO/UT, but the election night results in all three could probably be *relatively* bad for him, due to slow counting
You can imagine the early media coverage on election night if the early states are basically split (and it could be worse), and he seems to hold a fairly underwhelming edge, if one at all, in the early CA count. It won't be positive.
The place where Sanders could solve this issue is the big state of Texas. There are real strengths for him there, particularly if the Latino vote is anywhere near as good for him there as it was in Nevada.
But the polls in Texas really aren't great for Sanders, at least not yet
But the polls in Texas really aren't great for Sanders, at least not yet
And there are weaknesses for Sanders in TX, too. The Latino vote there is relatively conservative (he certainly did worse there in '16 than in NV/IL/CA). There's a meaningful black vote. The white suburban vote is affluent and includes a lot of the Romney-Clinton type voters
So with that context, there are still two opportunities--the debate tonight and SC--for someone to break out just enough by Super Tuesday to 1) win some of these close, unfavorable to Sanders seats; 2) consolidate the opposition heading into the next round
IDK what's going to happen in the debate tonight. I do know that frontrunner scrutiny has clearly come on cable TV. He seems likely to be the focus, and so far this year, that hasn't gone well for the receiving candidate (early Biden; Warren Oct; Bloomberg)
Then there's SC. Sanders could win, and if he does then I think that 71% starts going up quite a bit and you're looking at a very possible Super Tues. sweep. Think McCain '08.
If he doesn't, then someone--presumably Biden--has a shot to pull off close wins in the South on Tues
If he doesn't, then someone--presumably Biden--has a shot to pull off close wins in the South on Tues
So while maybe it's not the likeliest scenario, I don't think it's hard to imagine how Sanders can come out of Super Tuesday looking weak after losing 1/2 the states (and an unrepresentative, weak early count in CA) and the news is that someone else emerged has his top rival.
That new top rival would likely gain a lot of momentum, money, endorsements and so on. They'd have opportunities to show real strength in the next three weeks in FL, OH, MO, GA, MS, and even MI, where maybe Sanders might not be so strong compared to the country anymore
Even then, I'm not sure Sanders would be the underdog. But we're at an important point in the race, where Sanders easily run away with the nomination or find himself in a long, protracted contest with only a modest lead --and it's still possible that it wouldn't be a lead at all
