The Chinese government officials in the city of #Wuhan have announced that they will build another 19 or so "emergency hospitals" for the treatment of the Wuhan Disease.
Okay. So now we know the game. Finally.
Okay. So now we know the game. Finally.
If we assume that the local government believes that it needs to build about 20 new emergency hospitals, it means that the situation is very bad in Wuhan. And that it is getting worse.
Every "emergency hospital" will be specialised to treat persons with the Wuhan Disease. And we know that the Chinese are a very practical people, so we can also assume that "they will not build mini-hospitals".
So every emergency hospital will have between 1' to 5' patients.
So every emergency hospital will have between 1' to 5' patients.
If we assume that the new hospitals will be able to treat between 20' to 100' patients correspond to about 20% of the infected population, we can thus infer that the total infected population is about 100' to 1 000' patients. And those numbers are only from the city of Wuhan...
The early chaos in the hospitals in Wuhan ("The January Panic") was thus - wholly or partly - dependant on an earlier phase in the spread of the infection. We can call this early infection group "the December Cohort" of active coronavirus cases.
So:
So:
We know that the infection period lasted between the 1st and the 31rd of December. And we know that the median date for the infection period was the 15th of December. And we also know that the incubation period lasted for two to four weeks.
And so we had large number of very sick patients in the later half of Jan. according to the principle of "SARS-2 deaths mounting after 5 to 6 weeks after infection". So what we are seeing right now in Wuhan is a massive outbreak of the emergency cases as based on "Jan. Cohort"
We can thus conclude that we will be seeing two different shows. "The Little Show" began in the later half of Jan & based upon "the Dec. Cohort" of infected persons. "The Big Show" begins now in the later half of Feb. It is based upon the "January Cohort" of infected persons.
Let us hope that we will never have to see "The Much Bigger Show". But it will begin on the day when the Chinese government decides to build 100 or 500 new emergency hospitals.
To sum it up: the situation in Wuhan is growing worse. But we cannot see the finer details from the outside world. This is because a lot of people are "very sick and dying" in their homes or in the concentration centers/quarantine camps.
But because the Chinese government needs to maintain control over the people, we can trust in their actions.
IF they build 20 or 100 new emergency hospitals - to stave off a new Revolution we can believe that they are actually serious in their need for new emergency hospitals.
IF they build 20 or 100 new emergency hospitals - to stave off a new Revolution we can believe that they are actually serious in their need for new emergency hospitals.
We can also note that "this will not be over" in a few weeks time. We will soon have a new "February Cohort" of infected persons that will hit the medical system in March. And then the "March Cohort" will follow on up in April. This will go on. And on. And #pandemic.
The decision of today shows that the government of China is acting with force and conviction "to get this #COrVID19 matter under control". No effort will be spared. And this is actually good news. However; meanwhile in #Sweden: dagenssamhalle.se/blogg/2020/02/…
"Can we all laugh at you if you are wrong?" Yes, please do. I would be so very happy if I for once am wrong. I really wish to be silent. But my interpretation of the data do indicate a great anomaly. We are not having an ordinary flu going global. Is @Folkhalsomynd ready?
@threadreaderapp unroll
