Since results are so slow to come in, it may be a while before we can turn the model back on, but these first two scenarios give you most of what you need to know:
fivethirtyeight.com/features/26-sc…
fivethirtyeight.com/features/26-sc…
So:
* Sanders 50/50ish to win a pledged delegate majority.
* "No majority" still a fairly likely outcome, although note that Sanders will win the nomination via plurality some of the time that happens.
* Sanders 50/50ish to win a pledged delegate majority.
* "No majority" still a fairly likely outcome, although note that Sanders will win the nomination via plurality some of the time that happens.
* It's a big drop-off after that. Biden probably has the next-best chance of a majority, especially if he finishes in 2nd tonight. Biden vs Sanders face-off still possible if Biden wins SC.
* FYI model may be overrating Bloomberg because there's little post-debate polling in yet.
* FYI model may be overrating Bloomberg because there's little post-debate polling in yet.
