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Hopefully not embarrassing @NicoleSykes_ too much the CBI document on their priorities for the future UK-EU relationship is one of the best I've read at explaining the complexities of modern trade, and should be a reference for the UK gov's mandate... cbi.org.uk/media/4105/125…
@NicoleSykes_ In particular the report explains why the UK should be seeking various forms of wider regulatory cooperation, whether in services or goods, and how zero tariffs is really only the start. Knowledge once at core of UK gov but now often forgotten...
@NicoleSykes_ A shallow Free Trade Agreement between UK and EU is going to mean huge barriers to trade with our neighbours. Our businesses, consumers, employees expect more. Over time I expect this to happen, but possibly with considerable disruption until we get there.
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Well here we are. At very first sight the UK negotiating mandate is a solid enough effort, more so I think than many documents published since 2016. assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
I'm in meetings for a while so no long thread (though there should be an article soon) but seems the initial focus is UK threat to walk away in June. To be honest though this is a logical result of saying no extension, we'll need a final deal by September. theguardian.com/politics/2020/…
Beyond solid - there's an awkwardness of trying to balance the claim we want only a bog-standard FTA, the areas we want to go further, rejecting the accusations of cake, and supporting UK business. Those the compromises trade deals impose.
Read 3 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Worth noting - the EU negotiating position has been discussed by 27 Member States and the European Parliament before being finalised.

The UK negotiating position will only have been discussed by at most the Cabinet.

Experience suggests the EU's way provides a firmer platform.
In particular the asks of UK business associations and devolved assemblies are unlikely to be well reflected in the UK's negotiating objectives for the EU.

Remember it isn't just about getting *any* deal or no deal but preferably a *good* deal.
I'm particularly looking forward to hearing how the UK government answers questions about the role of devolved authorities in areas like agriculture. I think the devolved authorities are looking forward to hearing that as well...
Read 3 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Time to dig a little under the hood of the EU negotiating mandate for the future UK partnership agreement. Dull summary - this is the document you'd expect the EU to produce. It tells us of their priorities, and should not be confused with the final deal... 1/
First, consider the EU process. The Commission runs the negotiating process. Member States have their most significant input in setting the mandate. Their best chance of getting what they want is to include it in this document. Hence it will be ambitious. 2/
The mandate in particular isn't some kind of punishment for the UK as some suggest. This is the way the EU negotiates with all third countries and particularly neighbours. If another country wants preferential access to the market, here's the structure 3/
Read 22 tweets

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Anand Menon
@anandMenon1
It's out! The new @UKandEU offering available FOR FREE here ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/upl… This is a photo of the cover, which allows me to tag loads of people who'd rather I didn't.... 1/25
So. What have we got to say? @MeredithCrowle1 points out the future UK-EU relationship will entail a series of trade-offs: more alignment with EU regulations and standards = more trade but less control. 2/25
Next, @HusseinHKassim argues that despite both sides’ stated desire for close relationship, not sure what the negots can deliver. Not clear how far the UK has grasped implications of being a 3rd country nor how far EU is prep to give the UK a special third country deal. 3/25
Read 25 tweets
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Stijn Smismans
@smismanss
It is not my place to give an Urbi et Orbi, but just some 1st January thoughts about what ONE CAN DO POLITICALLY in the year the Brexit process really starts and the shit will hit the fan. 1) The political party opposition will not gain shape and force any time soon .
The related infighting, manoeuvring and reorganisation is beyond my understanding. Yet, rather from gut feeling I would say that Labour needs at least as much an Opposition Leader who is charismatic/or at least speaks to the heart, as it needs a strong strategic mind.
In the absence of the combination of both in one person, my feeling is that the Labour leader needs to be able to offer the first, and deputy can focus organisational strategy. Given Brexit and the urgency of giving the opposition a strong voice in Parliament,...
Read 26 tweets
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
NEW:

Internal Brexit negotiations memo presented to Whitehall “Economic Partnership Steering Group” last week shows how negotiators removed the word “adequate” from description of employment, environmental level playing field standards enforcement in Political Declaration /1
note from the cross Whitehall group planning future UK-EU trade deal, reviewing the renegotiation, first leaked to FT and seen by BBC say UK and EU “will include “appropriate” (rather than ‘adequate’) mechanisms for dispute settlement” of key level playing field commitments”.../2
consequence of that change, note says, is it means it’s now possible to argue it is “inappropriate for the future UK-EU relationship” that disputes about these commitments on employment, environment, tax, state aid and other standards should be subject to binding arbitration. /3
Read 14 tweets
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conor macauley
@TVconormac
WAB impact assessment. Broad read out. Most of the cost and complexity appears to fall on GB firms trading to NI, rather than the other way round. With a specific focus on agrifood, here goes 1/9
Impact assessment heavily caveated, says there's not much data on GB/NI trade flows and its conclusions don't take account of future changes of behavior by firms or changes in costs associated with any new UK EU trading relationship, but..... 2/9
On customs checks
NI to GB
Will need "practical information" provided electronically. Cost unclear due to "data limitations"
GB to NI
Extra paperwork; additional administrative cost. Don't know how much but GB to Rest of World cost is £15-56 per declaration says HMRC 3/9
Read 9 tweets
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Andrew Fisher
@FisherAndrew79
Boris Johnson claimed “many, many business organisations have come out in support of this deal”

Have they? Have they?

THREAD incoming ...
Make UK: “We are concerned to see that commitments to the closest possible trading relationship in goods have gone.
"Differences in regulation between the UK and the EU will add cost and bureaucracy and our companies will face a lack of clarity inhibiting investment and planning”
CBI: “Business has serious concerns about the direction of the future UK-EU relationship … The deal remains inadequate on services, which make up 80% of the UK economy”
Read 6 tweets
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David M. Herszenhorn
@herszenhorn
Amid reports that #UK PM @theresa_may hopes to renegotiate the "backstop" provision on the Northern Ireland border, let's recall that she already made clear what she wants in her letter to #EU leaders before disastrously losing the #Brexit Withdrawal Treaty ratification vote. 1/
"This could be mitigated by changes to the backstop itself," she wrote to @eucopresident & @JunckerEU "Proposals for a way in which the UK could choose to exit the backstop unilaterally were it ever to come into force, or for a hard time limit... 2/
on the duration of the usage of the backstop, have been raised and discussed in Parliament. We have also raised them previously in negotiations." So there are her proposals, i.e. the EU should basically just cave on backstop in face of House of Commons defeat. But but but ... 3/
Read 17 tweets

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