Thread by @jensimmons

It’s become very clear that odds are, COVID-19 will reach where you live. Rationale doctors & scientists are explaining what’s happening, and telling us quarantine measures, esp in China, have given us a gift — of time. We need to use this time to prepare. Mentally, emotionally…

Think through: when will you pull your kids out of school? Where do you want to be? Do you have enough food, medicine & other daily stuff to get through an extended stay at home? What might you want to do now? How can you calmly prepare?

I cleaned out my freezer. Made & froze lots of soup. Stockpiling veg next. Learning ways to store food.

I usually only have 2-3 days of food on hand. (Very NYC.) Now have 2-3 weeks. Aiming for longer. While thinking about how to not waste food/$$$ if this is all for not.

No need to be fearful. No need to freak out about things I cannot control (like whether or not the hospitals are ready). But I can prepare my own home to be shut in for 8+ weeks. Without stress & worry. Staying supplied with coffee & chocolate, shampoo & dog food, etc.

We have time to prepare. Use it.

Ignore all hype, all drama. Learn from reputable sources like this doctor in the U.K. who’s collecting and summarizing research papers & 1st-hand reports from doctors around the world: youtube.com/user/Campbellt…

Some of the advice I’ve gathered:
• Really take care of yourself & your health.
• Get lots of sleep.
• Eat well.
• Drink less. Quit smoking. Do all the things you mean to do, but don’t.

Why? Because we might be about to get this illness. Get as healthy as we can now.

I’m thinking about it in two ways:
1) Preparing for my neighborhood to shut down. Stores/schools close. People staying inside... Getting what I’ll need now.
2) Preparing to be mildly/moderately sick myself (& family/roommates), assuming won’t need hospital. Like for any flu.

Since I don’t work in the health care system, I don’t work for government.... I can’t control any of what they are doing (or not doing). So I’m not going to worry about it.

But I can educate myself, choose, & prepare — & not stressed out later with “Why didn’t they tell us?!”

Facts I’ve learned from doctors & health officials:
• They think people are contagious days before they exhibit symptoms.
• Evidence leans towards this virus being airborne. Transmits at longer distances. Masks don’t really stop it. (Need goggles.)

• Quarantine measures won’t stop it. (Unlike SARS1.) We tried. It’s still spreading.
• Social distancing is important to slow down the spread. Slowing the spread is the only thing to help keep hospitals from becoming overrun. Overwhelmed hospitals = many more people dying.

Stats (from youtube.com/user/Campbellt…)

Maybe 60% of population will get COVID-19. Of those, 80% will recover just fine, not need hospital. 15% get much sicker & need oxygen, etc. 5% need ICU. Maybe 2% die.

These are best guess numbers, from Asia, at the moment. Could change.

The scariest thing is the math. NYC is 8 million people. That’s 960,000 people needing the hospital. 240,000 needing ICU. We are not prepared for that.

But I don’t work in govt or healthcare. So I’m going to focus on preparing to take care of myself & mine, well or mildly sick.

I don’t want to put people at risk because I run out of food. It’s not fair to ask delivery people to risk their lives to take care of me, not if I can do something ahead of time.

Also, prepare to get sick… then get well. Then help others. We are going to need each other.

I’m also preparing for this to NOT be a thing. Which seems weird, but best. I‘m writing a new conference talk for 2020. I’m cleaning out my freezer — and my closet! Doing spring cleaning in general. Buying clothes for upcoming trips.

Balance. Preparing for COVID & normal life.

I’m only buying things I’ll use anyway. I’m *not* stocking up on any pandemic-only supplies. I’m learning about cooking meals ahead of time. About storing food. Filling my home with things to eat & use through the spring. Using this as a chance to improve my cooking skills.