Bloomberg is in quite a lot of trouble. His national polls have stalled out or begun to reverse themselves. He's fallen to 11% in our CA polling average. In other Super Tuesday states, we aren't seeing the leads we saw pre-NV debate; it's a lot of stuff in the teens and low 20s.
Nor is there any obvious way to turn it around before Super Tuesday. He isn't competing in SC. His performance in the debate last night was improved IMO but initial polling suggests that voters didn't like it very much.
It's not even clear what he wants to happen in SC. If Bernie wins, Bernie may open up a *very* formidable lead by Super Tuesday, and though Bloomberg might be 2nd (a) it's likely to be a distant 2nd and (b) there's much more evidence of a Bloomberg ceiling than a Bernie ceiling.
If Biden wins SC, the race remains more open, but Biden will have a fairly clear claim to being the best alternative to Sanders and, per our projections, would likely finish comfortably ahead of Bloomberg in ST delegates. So Bloomberg might be in a fairly distant 3rd place.
