Based on my observation from Columbia SC and Selma, a few things to watch on #SuperTuesday:
1. Bloomberg showed up in Selma but got a rough reception. And our young, black focus group in Columbia SC were a hard NO. The takeaway: Bloomberg has intrigue, Biden has relationships.
1. Bloomberg showed up in Selma but got a rough reception. And our young, black focus group in Columbia SC were a hard NO. The takeaway: Bloomberg has intrigue, Biden has relationships.
2. Bernie was not in Selma. Does that reverberate w other black voters Tuesday in a year when John Lewis (who made a surprise appearance at a commemoration that rivaled the size of the usually larger Faith & Politics march? (Sanders was in CA & held a concert rally w/ @MrChuckD)
@MrChuckD 3. Where do Klobuchar and Buttigieg's supporters go? Polls seem to indicate they may be evenly spread out, though Amy has now endorsed Biden and Buttigieg seems likely to lean toward him. How many of them have already voted?
@MrChuckD 4. Will Biden's surprising strength in SC cause some of the black women over 40 who have been telling me in multiple states that Bloomberg is the only one who can beat Trump to return to Biden (where many of them say they were before the primary began)?
@MrChuckD 5. And how ferocious will the pressure/backlash be on Bloomberg if he doesn't reach threshold anywhere tomorrow, but whatever votes he gets are perceived to have been "taken from" Biden?
@MrChuckD 6. How large will Sanders' margin be in California, and how much does Warren eat into it? Same with Texas. It won't just be who wins, but by how much. Those two states are one-third of the votes needed to get to the magic number.
@MrChuckD 7. The Biden consolidation is definitely happening. If he sweeps the South tomorrow as expected, do Bloomberg backing pols start to jump to his ship? As we saw with @WhipClyburn in SC, TRUSTED elected officials can make a difference for voters struggling to make up their minds.
@MrChuckD @WhipClyburn 8. @harrisonjaime strongly suggested Biden make a veep announcement early and tap a black woman. He is not alone in suggesting that (I've heard the same advice for Bloomberg and for Sanders). If he does well tomorrow will Biden do it? Wld be unusually unconventional for a Dem.
@MrChuckD @WhipClyburn @harrisonjaime 9. Now that she's the leading woman in the race (Tulsi Gabbard is also still running but has yet to poll in double digits), does Warren consolidate women voters who actively want a woman president, and pick up a state or two?
10. And last but not least-how big will the turnout be? Sanders' claim that his "political revolution" can drive out young & typically non-voter turnout is his strongest case that he would be the strongest nominee. So far the results have been mixed, but it's only been 3 states.
Everybody get out and vote if you're in a Super Tuesday state, and catch up with you afterward!!
