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Biden and Sanders are now ~tied in our forecast.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-f…
Yes, there are a lot of assumptions here, about Biden's SC bounce and the effect of the Buttigieg and Klobuchar withdraws. But I don't think those assumptions are particularly aggressive or Biden-friendly. For instance, it gives him no extra credit for Pete/Klob *endorsing* him.
The only national poll post-SC had just a 3-point Sanders lead, and that was before Buttigieg and Klobuchar quit. Biden has gained a lot in California polls and could limit Sanders's delegate haul. His performance in SC bodes well for how he'll do in the South tomorrow.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Posted for "amusement", not as an endorsement: the prediction market PredictIt now says that Hillary Clinton, not Bernie Sanders, is the 2nd-most-likely Democratic nominee. predictit.org
Given the age of Biden and Sanders, I think it's reasonable for prediction markets to consider the small but nonzero possibility that a health problem could force the nominee to leave the race. That's something our model does *not* account for, BTW.
There's also still an outside chance (which our model *does* consider) of a no-majority scenario.

But there's no particular reason to think that HILLARY CLINTON would be nominated in either of those cases.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Quite a spread in Michigan polls but they all point to Biden well ahead:

Monmouth: Biden +15
Mitchell Research & Communications: Biden +21
EPIC-MRA: Biden +24
Concord Public Opinion Partners: Biden +30
Target Insyght: Biden +41

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/presiden…
Biden's lead in our polling average (+25) is actually a bit larger than Clinton's in 2016 (+21). So this would be a bigger upset. Always possible! But... the demographics of Michigan don't look nearly as good for the 2020 version of Sanders's coalition as the 2016 version.
YouGov with a more modest Biden +12 in Michigan, although it looks like a rather small sample size. So we've got a spread from +12 to +41. news.yahoo.com/new-yahoo-news…
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
People (including me to some extent) interpreted head-to-head polls showing Sanders tied with/slightly ahead of Biden as being good news for Sanders. But not sure they were given that those polls were taken at the height of Sanders's bounce and Biden's slump...
If Sanders was only leading Biden by a couple points in head-to-head polls at a time after NH when a lot of when national polls were like Sanders 28, Biden 16 (i.e. Sanders +12) that suggests that Biden *was* set to benefit from the field consolidating.
Overall, your analysis of this primary will tend to have been stronger if you *did* believe in ideological "lanes" than if you didn't. The polls aside, the actual behavior of voters has been rather emphatic on that point.
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Nate Cohn
@Nate_Cohn
FiveThirtyEight forecast is pretty interesting and bold right now (and I'm not saying it's wrong!) making Biden a very narrow favorite in TX, VA, NC, and across the South, in spite of the polls, by anticipating a post-SC bounce for Biden projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-f…
The majority of my replies think it's crazy, but I think it's credible, even if I'm not sure it's 'right,' and I think it's consistent with the last month, whether it's the Klobucharge or the post-IA Bloomberg surge. A lot of moderate vote seem willing to back the hot hand
Does it go too far? I mean, quite possibly but I have no idea, and I'd guess we won't know until Tuesday, with so few polls likely to hit during that narrow window. And even if they do, the Klobucharge is a reminder that it may not fully show up in the pre-election polls anyway
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Frank
@FrankBullit67
A few "provocative" thoughts on US politics.

America goes through political phases/cycles where certain policies take hold for many years, often decades. For instance, the Great Depression ended several decades of relative "Laissez Faire" policies with an expanding welfare state
This period was combined with relatively low immigration and an increasingly interventionist Federal Government with the creation of several new federal agencies. Though the Depression was "brutal" by our standards, things started improving after several years (before WWII).
This period saw significant rises in living standards for the vast majority of Americans. But, marginal tax rates were very high during this period - 91% in the case of the Eisenhower years (Republican). Kennedy cut marginal rates to 70% but they stayed there till Reagan.
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Portlus Glam
@PortlusGlam
🚨THE POLLS ARE BEING MANIPULATED.

That’s why Tucker Carlson is spending an entire segment right now dissecting this article.👇

Last week, Trump said his support was rising after a new poll had just said 70% thought he was wrong. @NateSilver538 helping.
vanityfair.com/news/2019/11/n…
@NateSilver538 Nate Silver business model is pay-to-play. His aggregation methodology is offensive to non-vested statisticians.
@NateSilver538 Everything is an industry with these grifters. Trump doesn’t reference favorable polling he hasn’t already bought...
Read 21 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth #EqualityActNow
@VABVOX
So we seem to have stopped discussing electability when #Bernie started slipping below #Warren and #Harris's favorables topped #Biden's.
Huh.
Maybe women ARE the ticket for 2020.
#Campaign2020
A month from now when the main debate stage is Biden, Bernie, Warren, Harris, Buttigieg, Beto, Klobuchar, Booker, Inslee, Castro and maybe Yang & Williamson, there will be more shifts in the polls.
One issue that will be raised is age.
No one will need to say it--we'll see it.
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🚨 REDPilledCrasH
@Michaelcraddo16
1.Peter Paul Montgomery #Buttigieg is an American politician and former NIO who has served as the mayor of the city of South Bend, Indiana since 2012. He is graduate of Harvard University and Oxford University, Pembroke College, Oxford on a Rhodes Scholarship. #Q
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 Viewpoint: What's happening with crime in South Bend? #Buttigieg
southbendtribune.com/news/opinion/v…
3.Pete #Buttigieg Criticizes Vice President Pence In Speech About LGBTQ Rig... via @YouTube #Buttigieg #Q
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