FiveThirtyEight forecast is pretty interesting and bold right now (and I'm not saying it's wrong!) making Biden a very narrow favorite in TX, VA, NC, and across the South, in spite of the polls, by anticipating a post-SC bounce for Biden projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-f…
The majority of my replies think it's crazy, but I think it's credible, even if I'm not sure it's 'right,' and I think it's consistent with the last month, whether it's the Klobucharge or the post-IA Bloomberg surge. A lot of moderate vote seem willing to back the hot hand
Does it go too far? I mean, quite possibly but I have no idea, and I'd guess we won't know until Tuesday, with so few polls likely to hit during that narrow window. And even if they do, the Klobucharge is a reminder that it may not fully show up in the pre-election polls anyway
I think the early voting question is an interesting one. I would guess that mitigates the effect in many--but not all--states. How much? I don't know.
The 'enough time' question? That seems clear: definitely enough time. The Biden Comeback is going to be The Story for three days
The 'enough time' question? That seems clear: definitely enough time. The Biden Comeback is going to be The Story for three days
On balance though, I'd guess that the average critical post in my reply is overestimating the importance of early voting here. It's not a massive share of the vote in most states right now. Decided voters are likeliest to do it; many Dems are holding back on their votes in CA
Look at CA absentees, for instance, using @Political_Data, and you've got GOPers returning ballots at far higher rates so far, even Dems have the competitive race. Why? They know who they're voting for! tableau.the-pdi.com/t/CampaignTool…
@Political_Data Anyway, I have no idea how Super Tuesday is going to go. But the conditions for a Biden surge here are fairly straightforward and not precluded by early voting, even if mitigated. I wouldn't dismiss the idea, even if I'm not sure it's going to happen either
