Thread by @pmdfoster

An industry insider tells me a supermarket has calculated the cost of putting a single 'mixed' container (meat, fish, dairy) goods from GB to NI at £6,000 - or "half total value of consignment". This is a serious #Brexit issue. 1/Thread

m.email3.telegraph.co.uk/nl/jsp/s.jsp?c…

I caveat the above by saying I am not privy to the methodology, but people who understand this stuff have checked it, and say it makes sense.

This the cost of compliance - vet decs etc, with SPS (animal health) stuff being the biggest burdern. Why does this matter? /2

Because if you think about it the Northern Irish "frontstop" is the FIRST moment where the #Brexit rubber actually hits the road - until now it's all been transition and obfuscation. This the first attempt at actually doing real stuff. And the UK govt is balking. /3

If those numbers are even half-right, you can see why.

There have been other numbers - the UK impact assessment spoke of £15-£56 per declaration, but this aggregate figure puts it into serious perspective. /4

Because YES there have always been 'live animal' checks at Larne, but SPS requirements cover not just the Lamb, but the Lamb chops - as it were - and all its associated by-products, milk, cheese etc. These are checks and declarations of a different order of magnitude. /5

The scale of this issue increased dramatically by @BorisJohnson's choice of #Brexit - he wants a Canada/Australia style deal. That leaves little room for 'easements' that reduce these costs. I understand even a NZ-style vet agreement doesn't make *that* much difference. /6

@BorisJohnson Understandably, major supermarkets are getting VERY jumpy. One major chain has 300 trucks a WEEK going to NI from Scotland - it needs to know what is going to happen. And it needs to know fast.

But this week HMG cancelled a planned meeting at Defra to discuss /7

@BorisJohnson The Big Supers had all lifted travel bans etc; put the date in the diary etc....but it seems that there was insufficient *political* clarity about just how this protocol will be implemented to hold the meeting. Need to see what comes out of Brussels talks etc. /8

@BorisJohnson This is where it gets ticklish for the big retailers (leave aside small biz).

Some that have Irish outlets (Lidl, Aldi, Tesco) can shift to EU imports and send them north - but bad luck if you were UK supplier. Lost business. /9

@BorisJohnson For those chains that don't have RoI outlets...Sainsbury's, Asda for example, from what I can see....it is not clear what good options you have. /10

@BorisJohnson All this by way of example about how real these issues are when it comes to implementing what UK Govt signed up to - which leaves all goods GB-NI needing to comply with EU customs rules, tariff-exemptions or not. /11

@BorisJohnson This also puts into perspective the kind of incendiary language that @JP_Biz reported from the NI assembly yesterday - NI agri minister saying the protocol was "hugely damaging". One member called it a "punishment beating" for supporting #Brexit /12

https://twitter.com/JP_Biz/status/1234527232649048064?s=20

@BorisJohnson @JP_Biz EU officials and diplomats are scalded by the UK approach to this.

One senior EU dip went to see No 10 for private reassurance on the implementation of the Protocol. Didnt get it.

Others are just insouciant. Talk about "smart borders" in Calais or Rotterdam/13

@BorisJohnson @JP_Biz But at the end of the day, they revert to a version of: "The UK signed the deal. It knew what it was signing. It was made very clear. To Frost also."

Even at the time some doubted the wisdom of the deal - whether it was really implementable. /14

@BorisJohnson @JP_Biz From my conversations, I'd say the EU side is much hotter-under-the-collar on the Irish 'frontstop' than on fishing.

Everyone knows there won't be a final deal on fish by June 30 - they just need a headline. To stop Normandy burning & the Calais blockade. /15

@BorisJohnson @JP_Biz But on the Protocol, voices start to raise quickly. Failure to demonstrate that the Protocol is moving by June will brings the talks to a deadstop - which might, reading Johnson's mandate be the UK plan. Look for a reset in Sept. Or even before. /16

@BorisJohnson @JP_Biz Because even if @MichelBarnier has dialled down the shrillness of late, (reminding everyone about 'de-dramatisations') the industry is warning that there is a limit to which these can reduce costs/friction. Yes you can do market surveillance in factory, but on SPS its at ports/17

@BorisJohnson @JP_Biz @MichelBarnier The EU actively wants to see @michaelgove and starting to engage with Maroš Šefčovič @MarosSefcovic to fire up the Joint Cmme and its six sub cmmes. And to start to see UK side preparing to build the customs border they agreed to build, at least as EU sees it. /18

@BorisJohnson @JP_Biz @MichelBarnier @michaelgove @MarosSefcovic The food, drink, logistics and retail industries are getting seriously jumpy and upset, from what I hear. They need to plan and execute, but are at risk of becoming collateral damage in a very high stakes political game. /19

@BorisJohnson @JP_Biz @MichelBarnier @michaelgove @MarosSefcovic Like I said at the top, the 'Frontstop' is the first point at which #Brexit actually means something - where the rubber hits the road.

It still looks to me like the thing most likely to throw the entire talks into a skid. ENDS