Some more grabs and comments, in a separate thread.
"As COVID-19 is a newly identified pathogen, there is no known pre-existing immunity in humans."
We're all immuno-naive. Which begs, why do many get only mild disease, but a significant slab of others severe?
We're all immuno-naive. Which begs, why do many get only mild disease, but a significant slab of others severe?
"It is important to note that transmission dynamics of any outbreak are inherently contextual."
Of course. A bit like like economics, epidemiology is a kind of aggregate summary of human behaviour, as well as of pathogen behaviour.
Of course. A bit like like economics, epidemiology is a kind of aggregate summary of human behaviour, as well as of pathogen behaviour.
"The (January) dynamics likely approximated mass action and radiated from Wuhan to other parts of Hubei province and China, which explains a relatively high R₀ of 2-2.5."
They still say R₀ is in the twos, even though the observed case growth rate was 0.4 *per day*.
They still say R₀ is in the twos, even though the observed case growth rate was 0.4 *per day*.
Those numbers are not compatible.
"Data on (those) aged 18 years and younger suggest that there is a relatively low attack rate (2.4% of all reported cases). Within Wuhan, among testing of ILI samples, no children were positive in November and December of 2019 and in the first two weeks of January 2020."
"The Joint Mission learned that infected children have largely been identified through contact tracing in households of adults. Of note, people interviewed by the Joint Mission Team could not recall episodes in which transmission occurred from a child to an adult."
Children probs don't get this disease, or if they do, they have mild or no symptoms and are not particularly infectious.
"13.8% have severe disease (dyspnea, respiratory
frequency ≥30/minute, blood O₂ saturation ≤93%, PaO₂/FiO₂ ratio <300...), and 6.1% are critical (respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure)"
Those are additive, so ~1 in 5 get nasty disease.
frequency ≥30/minute, blood O₂ saturation ≤93%, PaO₂/FiO₂ ratio <300...), and 6.1% are critical (respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure)"
Those are additive, so ~1 in 5 get nasty disease.
"2114 of the 55,924 cases have died (crude fatality ratio 3.8%). The overall CFR was higher in the early stages of the outbreak (17.3% for cases with symptom onset from 1-10 January) and has reduced over time to 0.7% for patients with symptom onset after 1 February."
Probably we got (a lot!) better at treating it. There is no evidence that the virus has become less nasty.
It's not correct that no mild cases (as at time of laboratory confirmed diagnosis) die. A very few do. 
"Other measures implemented included the extension
of the Spring Festival holiday, traffic controls, control of transportation capacity to reduce the movement of people; mass gathering activities were also cancelled."
Which seems to be polite understatement. Try 'house arrest'.
of the Spring Festival holiday, traffic controls, control of transportation capacity to reduce the movement of people; mass gathering activities were also cancelled."
Which seems to be polite understatement. Try 'house arrest'.
"China is already, and rightfully, working to bolster its economy, reopen its schools and return to a more normal semblance of its society, even as it works to contain the remaining chains of COVID-19 transmission."
Really? Is this a technical report or a puff piece?
Really? Is this a technical report or a puff piece?
"Much of the global community is not yet ready, in mindset and materially, to implement the measures that have been employed to contain COVID-19 in China. These are the only measures currently proven to interrupt or minimize transmission chains in humans."
And it won't ever be.
And it won't ever be.
"For the public:
1. Recognize that COVID-19 is a new and concerning disease, but that outbreaks can managed with the right response and that the vast majority of infected people will recover"
But ~1 in 20 won't, and ~1 in 5 will get extremely sick.
1. Recognize that COVID-19 is a new and concerning disease, but that outbreaks can managed with the right response and that the vast majority of infected people will recover"
But ~1 in 20 won't, and ~1 in 5 will get extremely sick.
The most interesting point is right up near the front:
"The cellular infectivity of the isolated viruses could be completely neutralized by the sera collected from convalescent patients."
"The cellular infectivity of the isolated viruses could be completely neutralized by the sera collected from convalescent patients."
