A few observations about Super Tuesday:
* There Is a big constituency for racially inclusive social democracy
* The media doesn't have that much power
* Joe Biden should pick Kamala Harris as his VP
* Niceness matters
* No, Twitter still isn't real life
And more.
[Thread.]
* There Is a big constituency for racially inclusive social democracy
* The media doesn't have that much power
* Joe Biden should pick Kamala Harris as his VP
* Niceness matters
* No, Twitter still isn't real life
And more.
[Thread.]
1) There Is a Big Constituency For Racially Inclusive Social Democracy
Biden keeps being described as a centrist. He's not. Look at his policy program. It's robustly social democratic. (No, seriously, look. I'll wait.)
joebiden.com/joes-vision/
Biden keeps being described as a centrist. He's not. Look at his policy program. It's robustly social democratic. (No, seriously, look. I'll wait.)
joebiden.com/joes-vision/
Biden's campaign is also deeply racially inclusive. He didn't win black voters because they're confused or know nothing about politics.
He won them over because they value demonstrated solidarity and realistic promises that actually improve their lives.
Biden offered both.
He won them over because they value demonstrated solidarity and realistic promises that actually improve their lives.
Biden offered both.
2) The media doesn't have that much power
If you polled political journalists, Elizabeth Warren would win.
But even in her home state, she only won in places like Somerville (Harvard grad students) and Arlington (Harvard profs).
If you polled political journalists, Elizabeth Warren would win.
But even in her home state, she only won in places like Somerville (Harvard grad students) and Arlington (Harvard profs).
This comes on the heels of other failures by media institutions to "carry" their readers.
Joker and the Dave Chapelle special for example were universally panned. But millions upon millions of Americans watched - and loved - those shows anyway.
Joker and the Dave Chapelle special for example were universally panned. But millions upon millions of Americans watched - and loved - those shows anyway.
In the past years, I've been asking myself how much impact the leftward drift of elite media would have: Would people follow elite cues?
I increasingly think the answer is no. And this means that outlets that try too hard to do so may end up losing a lot of their audience.
I increasingly think the answer is no. And this means that outlets that try too hard to do so may end up losing a lot of their audience.
3) Twitter Still Isn't Reality
Online, all the buzz was for Warren and Sanders. At the polls, Biden beat both.
This is not a coincidence, as @saletan points out.
Online, all the buzz was for Warren and Sanders. At the polls, Biden beat both.
This is not a coincidence, as @saletan points out.
The progressive theory of mobilization once again proved a nice idea that has bearing on reality.
Sanders didn't produce a surge of young voters and performed poorly among many non-white voters.
Biden won by appealing to a diverse coalition of voters who show up to the polls.
Sanders didn't produce a surge of young voters and performed poorly among many non-white voters.
Biden won by appealing to a diverse coalition of voters who show up to the polls.
4) Kamala Harris
Joe Biden should pick Kamala Harris as his Vice President.
Kamala ran a, well, uneven campaign. But she is and always has been a formidable talent and her core message was spot on.
She'd add excitement to the ticket and would one day be a great successor.
Joe Biden should pick Kamala Harris as his Vice President.
Kamala ran a, well, uneven campaign. But she is and always has been a formidable talent and her core message was spot on.
She'd add excitement to the ticket and would one day be a great successor.
5) Niceness matters
A lot of armchair strategists believe that you need to be ruthless, shameless, and ever willing to attack institutions as fraudulent to win.
Biden has risen to the top by being consistently and authentically decent. That's good news.
A lot of armchair strategists believe that you need to be ruthless, shameless, and ever willing to attack institutions as fraudulent to win.
Biden has risen to the top by being consistently and authentically decent. That's good news.
A key part of Biden's success comes from being able to rally Amy, Beto, Pete and other moderates behind him.
He made it easy for them to do this by being consistently respectful of them.
He made it easy for them to do this by being consistently respectful of them.
What will Warren do in the next days?
Her ideology is midway between Bernie and Biden. Temperamentally, I imagine, she prefers Bernie.
But will she be willing to get behind him after the way his supporters treated her?
I doubt it. Because niceness can be an effective strategy
Her ideology is midway between Bernie and Biden. Temperamentally, I imagine, she prefers Bernie.
But will she be willing to get behind him after the way his supporters treated her?
I doubt it. Because niceness can be an effective strategy
6) The Obama Factor
Obama has been smart to stay out of the primary so far. As a result, he now has the capital to effectively end the campaign if and when he endorses Biden.
Don't expect this tomorrow. But it Biden consolidates his lead, Obama will come out swinging for him.
Obama has been smart to stay out of the primary so far. As a result, he now has the capital to effectively end the campaign if and when he endorses Biden.
Don't expect this tomorrow. But it Biden consolidates his lead, Obama will come out swinging for him.
7) Electability
Sanders would have a chance of beating Trump. Biden might well lose to Trump.
There are no certainties and even once we know the outcome in November, one data point won't settle a debate that is inherently probabilistic.
BUT...
Sanders would have a chance of beating Trump. Biden might well lose to Trump.
There are no certainties and even once we know the outcome in November, one data point won't settle a debate that is inherently probabilistic.
BUT...
Progressive candidates who can appeal to moderates have consistently outperformed those who just double down on the base in recent congressional and presidential elections.
So it's not a surprise that betting markets give Biden a much higher chance of beating Trump than Bernie.
So it's not a surprise that betting markets give Biden a much higher chance of beating Trump than Bernie.
Anyone who thinks 2020 is in the beg if Biden becomes the nominee is out of their mind.
This will be a long and hard fight. We might lose.
But I am a bit more hopeful today than a few days ago that we might beat back Trump and the authoritarian populism he represents.
[End]
This will be a long and hard fight. We might lose.
But I am a bit more hopeful today than a few days ago that we might beat back Trump and the authoritarian populism he represents.
[End]
