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Average of four new major polls says Joe Biden now leads Kamala Harris by 13 points. Big gain for her. Big story. But the one poll that has Biden and Kamala virtually tied? That’s an outlier. So naturally most pundits will focus only on the outlier poll.
Kamala was down 25 points. She closed nearly half the gap in one debate. That’s huge, especially this early on. Kamala clearly has all the momentum. Biden is still clearly the frontrunner. Not taking sides, just stating the facts. We’re still a long way from any actual voting.
Individual polls are generally useless. Polling averages are usually pretty reliable. But the media (particularly cable news) likes to report the most shocking outlier poll as if it were the only poll, because it’s great for ratings. Then the public loses faith in the polls.
The media particularly loves to report the frontrunner’s best poll one week, then report the frontrunner’s worst poll the next week, then back to the best poll, so it can create the appearance of constant movement even when the polling averages are stagnant. Again, for ratings.
