Thread by @AmericasCousin

Turnout Myths/Lies

I'm hearing a narrative metastasizing about turnout and youth turnout being down from 2016. I'm surprised this has taken root because it's an objective claim that is easily disproved, like misstating the population of New York. Election Night Results
(1/15)

are not secrets or difficult to locate. CNN's Election Center is pretty good and these will link to Virginia-2020 and Virginia-2016, where the rest of the states are easily accessible.

cnn.com/election/2020/… (Virginia 2020)

cnn.com/election/2016/… (Virginia 2016)

(2/15)

Let's take a look:

✅Texas
Total votes in 2020: 1,892,664
Total votes in 2016: 1,410,641
📈Increase: 482,023⬆️
📈Turnout: Up 34%⬆️

✅Virginia
Total votes in 2020: 1,292,952
Total votes in 2016: 778,865
📈Increase: 514,087 votes⬆️
📈Turnout: Up 66% ⬆️
(3/15)

✅Massachusetts
Total votes in 2020: 1,264,809 + 4% outstanding
Total votes in 2016: 1,198,625
📈>66,184 votes⬆️
📈At least 5.5% (not fully reported)⬆️

✅North Carolina
Total votes in 2020: 1,204,235 + 12% outstanding
Total votes in 2016: 1,076,699
📈>127,536⬆️
📈>11.8%⬆️
(4/)

✅Tennessee
Total votes in 2020: 479,173 + 14% outstanding
Total votes in 3016: 365,637
📈At least 113,366⬆️
📈At least 31%⬆️

The turnout increase isn't even subtle. It's blatant and consistent with what we saw in the first four contests.
More raw numbers--
(5/15)

Vermont
2020: 150494
2016: 134198

Oklahoma:
2020: 282841 (13% outstanding)
2016: 313108

Arkansas:
2020: 209107 (16% outstanding)
2016: 209448

(6/15)

Alabama:
2020: 440592 (18%) outstanding
2016: 386327

California is on pace to outperform 2016 but only around 57% is reporting so far so we can't conclude that definitively. Maine, Minnesota, Colorado, and Utah had caucuses in 2016 so there's no direct comparison
(7/15)

for their primaries in 2020. But every state (and American Samoa) had increased turnout, most of it being drastic. The only possible exception is Oklahoma whose turnout is on track to be about the same when fully reported. Notably, Sanders had a pre-election week
(8/15)

rally in Oklahoma City in the 2016 cycle while the only candidates to campaign there this time were Michael Bloomberg and Amy Klobuchar. If their presence depressed or failed to inspire turnout, that's certainly not a failure of Senator Sanders.
(9/15)

Sanders's strategy model succeeded in the caucuses of Iowa (covered in depth here:

https://twitter.com/AmericasCousin/status/1227339595584458752

) and Nevada (turnout up 10%, Sanders landslide win). It was up in the primaries of New Hampshire by approx. 27% and 40% in South Carolina.
(10/15)

Pointing to varied small % decreases in 18-44 turnout relative to 45+ turnout as though they are overall decreases is disingenuous because it obscures the fact that both youth and older voter turnout increased significantly. In some states, like Iowa, the % actually
(11/15)

increased for young voters by 9%. We can easily put the narrative lie to bed by applying the exit poll math to reported totals. (Exit polls are also in the CNN election center; see pics below.)

Let's take Texas as just one example.
(12/15)

Young voters in 2016 (42% of 1,410,641) = 592,469
Young voters in 2020 (37% of 1,892,664) = 700,285

107,816 more young voters = 18% increase.

The pattern of Sanders generating an increase in the amount of young voters at the polls holds in just about
(13/15)

every state he contested. The fact that other candidates are also succeeding in motivating their target age groups does not detract from that. We're having extremely strong turnout nationwide, exceeding #'s of voters showing up in nearly every contest
(14/15)

so it's dishonest to suggest that Democrats have a turnout problem this year, let alone that Sanders uniquely does. He is delivering. Turnout is high everywhere. Sanders's turnout strategy is succeeding. Other candidates are succeeding as well. That's a good thing.

(15/15)