Remember that moment TSA required us to take off our shoes at security and banned liquids over 3oz? I remember thinking "how long will this last?" That was 14 years ago. It's also the best analogy I can come up with for all of the new norms due to #coronavirus.
Some of our new norms are good things (yay! we're all expert hand washers now!). And some are concerning (I actually needed toilet paper, and there was NONE to be found in the grocery store.) I'm hopeful that the former is true in 14 years, and that the latter is resolved. But...
When one norm shifts, so does the system. I'm finding it really hard to imagine any major corporation sponsoring or attending a large conference for the next 18-24 months. Why? Even after containment, you're dealing with budgets set the previous fall.
If you were a CFO of a global corporation right now, you better bet you're watching the impact of no travel, no conferences, WFH and so on. I'm very curious which have a negative effect, which have a positive effect, and which are neutral.
Let's say you pulled out of a conference (massive sunk cost) and really saw no negative effect on the business. Are you going to allow the team to budget for that next year?
From a health perspective, at #TEDMED2020 I learned the Spanish Flu killed more people in the second wave than in the first. Why? A mutation meant that even young, healthy people were at high risk + we had a lot of mobile people across the globe (troops). history.com/news/spanish-f…
Ok, so back to norms. Right now the WFH nation is cheering. But what about those who can't? marketwatch.com/story/its-a-ve…
I'm expecting 2021 to be a big year for labor and policy changes that (sadly) only pass due to #coronavirus. Sick days are the obvious one, but worker protections for those whose jobs require interacting with a lot of people, and some type of small biz protections.
I'm also standing by my prediction that airlines will ask for a federal bailout next year (or consolidate) + if digital ever had a moment to not mess up, it's now.
There will be other bailout requests. The next administration will be in a sticky spot if we are in a recession. Up until 2 weeks ago, were were in a ridiculously frothy, unsustainable economy. The speed at which companies paused hiring suggests that it's more than #coronovirus
Ok - now for more fun (or funny) norm predictions! What will airlines do with their top tier members in 2021?
Who is going to figure out virtual experience best + cash in from it?
What is the preferred new handshake?
Will the Olympics have live spectators this year?
Which food trend will survive?
Which will take the hardest hit (h/t @donsteele)
And that closes this morning's thread-while-making-kid's-bfast-and-getting-ready-for-school. Also, if you are wondering if I am always like this, the answer from the team is "yes."
