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"The U.S. employs 134,000 respiratory specialists, or approximately 20 of these technicians for every US hospital. One of [the CDC’s] conclusions was, it's not so much the number of ventilators as the number of people needed to operate the ventilators." google.com/amp/s/api.nati…
By "flattening the wave" via fewer public events the health care system acquires optionality. It is better to have a flattened wave of infections and not need it than need it and not have it. In the short term, creating greater social distance is possible. centerforhealthsecurity.org/cbn/2020/cbnre…
So what can you do as an ordinary person to help? Help flatten the wave of infections by lowering the probability you will be infected. In addition, maintain your sense of humor. google.com/amp/s/thehill.…
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
People out in crowded spaces by choice should win a Graham Award instead of a Darwin Award.

"The idea of a margin of safety, a Graham precept, will never be obsolete. One skill is knowing the edge of your own competency. It’s not a competency if you don’t know the edge of it."
"A margin of safety is [is intended to] allow for human error, bad luck, or extreme volatility in a complex, unpredictable and rapidly changing world.” "The river may overflow its banks only once or twice in a century, but you still buy flood insurance.” google.com/amp/s/fortune.…
What you do is rarely like a roulette wheel, which is risk. Insead the events that often have the biggest impact on what you do are part of the domains of uncertainty and ignorance. Once you internalize this mental model, you should increasingly value having a margin of safety.
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
Cash is "a call option with no expiration date, an option on every asset class, with no strike price. A call option that can be priced. When the option is cheap relative to the ability of cash to buy assets, he's willing to put up with low interest rates." google.com/amp/s/www.busi…
Cash isn't ever trash. The optionality of cash has a cost that varies and it's value also varies based on the levels of undertainty and ignorance involved. "Financial options may be expensive because people know they are options and someone is selling them and charging a price."
"Optionality can be found everywhere if you know how to look.”

"The most interesting options are free, or at the worst, cheap.” google.com/amp/s/25iq.com…
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
Who said this in a speech on February 17, 2017?

"Pandemics are everyone's problem."

"...an airborne pathogen could kill more than 30m people in less than a year. And they say there is a reasonable probability the world will experience such an outbreak in the next 10-15 years."
"The irony is that the cost of ensuring adequate pandemic preparedness worldwide is estimated at $3.4 billion a year—yet the projected annual loss from a pandemic could run as high as $570 billion." gatesfoundation.org/Media-Center/S…
"The threat of deadly pandemics [is] right up there with nuclear war and climate change. When the next pandemic strikes, it could be another catastrophe in the annals of the human race. Or it could be something else altogether. An extraordinary triumph of human will." Bill Gates
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Maryam Henein/ #Shadowbanned (Follows Appreciated)
@MaryamHenein
#CDC & Hollywood Ties Run Deep

CDC funding awarded to the “Hollywood, Health & Society Program" is at least $1.75 million. This has resulted in 400 television + episodes “which have contained public health information.”

@Tiff_FitzHenry
@Perpetualmaniac
@med1cinewoman
This federally funded program has worked with writers from “ER,” “Grey’s Anatomy,” “House,” the various “Law & Order” and “CSI” shows, “Star Trek,” “Desperate Housewives,” and numerous soap operas such as “General Hospital,” among others.

bit.ly/2IJwg7g
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Daniel Sinclair
@_DanielSinclair
A really heartbreaking sight. The sacrifices from health workers in China have been immense.
This is the context of that video, reportedly related to the death of hospital director Liu Zhiming.
This is making the rounds, claiming to be Chinese escaping the country into Vietnam. I'm almost certain that it is misrepresented, and that this is not true.
Read 2899 tweets
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Daniel Sinclair
@_DanielSinclair
If containment fails, and this projection comes true, the hardships that the world would experience during the onset of the first coronavirus pandemic would be hard to comprehended through our current eyes. A first for the modern world.
That’s further out, but if COVID-19 does break through to influenza scale, the benefit would be in a substantial population of immunity & antibodies. Those prospects are now where China is focusing. Antibody donation could improve outcomes; that’s moving from secondary priority.
The best outcome of a worst case scenario would be herd immunity. But, millions would die, medical infrastructure would be overwhelmed at even a fraction of the early generational spread, & the world would be on pause. Transfusion is not the golden ticket; you need a lot of infra
Read 2852 tweets
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Daniel Sinclair
@_DanielSinclair
Unsurprisingly, more information was withheld by the Chinese government. COVID-19 had reached Guangdong by January 4th. Wuhan's lockdown only began on the 23rd. This is a probelm far bigger than Hubei and China.
Alternate reality: Theranos Ends Pandemic
It's so sad to read these stories of China's state of unrest. Trust is degraded. This is not a society that will return to normal with a snap of fingers and bans lifted. China is damaged, could be for years, & we're not even near the end of this epidemic.
Read 2850 tweets
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Daniel Sinclair
@_DanielSinclair
If you're looking for someone compromised on China, you have this theater and its 'unbreakable friendship.' news.yahoo.com/china-declines…
Xi's latest appearance on a call with Trump this morning is a different story, merely parroting the "People's War" language that state media has orchestrated in recent days
This question has only deepened for Chinese and the world in recent days, with the tragedy only growing day after day, and Wuhan's whistleblower now fallen: where is Xi Jinping? time.com/5778994/corona…
Read 2810 tweets
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Daniel Sinclair
@_DanielSinclair
@CDCgov While I wait for more info to develop in the coming days, make sure to follow @JaneLytv's fantastic coverage of the misinformation that is spreading:
@CDCgov @JaneLytv This is absolutely untrue and there is no reporting to validate it. What is happening in Wuhan is not related to a biological weapon, or a human-caused accidental release, and this emergent reporting of a Chinese national being removed from a Canadian lab is in no way related. Image
@CDCgov @JaneLytv This is trash reporting that is by definition fake news. The Wuhan coronavirus was not released by a lab, and there is no evidence to in any way suggest that. washingtontimes.com/news/2020/jan/…
Read 2700 tweets

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