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Just heard Boston's St. Patrick's parade is on for Sunday. A million expected people at a big gathering is not what we need as a pandemic is starting. Philadelphia tried this in 1918 smithsonianmag.com/history/philad…
This was not the only (maybe not even the main) reason Philadelphia suffered a high peak and large epidemic of flu in 1918, but the hands-off approach it symbolized was. pnas.org/content/104/18…
St. Patrick's parade needs to be cancelled. @marty_walsh
@CharlieBakerMA @wutrain @BOSCityCouncil @Kim_Janey @mfflaherty @juliaforboston @LydiaMEdwards @edforboston @CampbellforD4 @RicardoNArroyo @MattOMalley @KenzieBok @Liz4AB
I see now Boston followed suit with our own parade pbs.org/wgbh/americane…. Have we learned anything a century later?
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Marc Lipsitch
@mlipsitch
Apparently @reuters is planning a twitter convo with experts as well as "experts" like @DrEricDing . I urge the real experts who have signed on to pass and use their time to work with a media outlet that has standards.
OK lots of people think this is an intramural tiff. In the sense that we have been working @CCDD_HSPH for a decade and at @HarvardEpi for 25y to establish ID epidemiology as a field of excellence & we don't like a charlatan exploiting a tenuous connection for self-promotion, yes
#scicomm from @DrEricDing is 80% repeating conventional wisdom, 20% promoting wacko pseudoscience, and 100% derivative. He is not trained in infectious disease epidemiology, is making no original contributions to analysis of this epidemic & is laser-focused on self-promotion
Read 6 tweets
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Marc Lipsitch
@mlipsitch
Again reupping this paper on challenges of CFR estimation in outbreaks/pandemics with @neil_ferguson @_MiguelHernan and others. journals.plos.org/plosntds/artic…
Infectious disease epidemiologists have been working for decades -- since SARS 1 -- to develop methods to address these biases. A less technical summary of issues here washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
A tour de force designed by Joe Wu and @gmleunghku for which we helped out just published today nature.com/articles/s4159… estimates symptomatic case-fatality risk of 1.4% overall rising sharply with age.
Read 6 tweets
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Marc Lipsitch
@mlipsitch
Another myth to bust: Wuhan stopped short of 20% of the population being infected -- how can you say it will be 20-60% who will get it? FACT: yes Wuhan is short of that. The epidemic is not over. China is restricting travel from outside (irony!) but COVID certainly still there...
and if not, will be reintroduced. China's crackdown remarkably effective but people are still susceptible. Viral spread resumes when social contact does. Virus doesn't remember the social distancing of the past. 1918 showed this and so does basic logic.
So the number infected in Wuhan to date (more than confirmed, but still small relative to size of the city) is nowhere near the ultimate number that must be infected to achieve herd immunity so that infection can't transmit readily even with normal social interaction
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VekTor
@VekTorBK
I've been pondering whether I should write the information in this tweet (and ones that might follow), because I've wanted my focus to be on evidence and rational approaches to what we're seeing with #coronavirus / #2019nCoV / #COVID19 ... and not to spread fear unnecessarily.
That being said, I've just finished reading a preprint of a paper from the Los Alamos National Laboratories, who really are top-notch disease modellers... they were spot-on in modeling out both the 2018-2019 flu season, as well as the 2003 SARS outbreak.

They know their stuff.
They are using some very advanced agent-based models, which call for insane amounts of computing power, but can allow for much more accurate models of how people actually interact with each other, and how that affects the paths of likely cross-infection.

This paper is bad news.
Read 51 tweets
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Caitlin G DeAngelis
@cgdhopkins
In honor of the #1620project and other 19th-century fables, allow me to tell you about the legend of Mother Goose and how it is actually about Antebellum Bostonians denying their complicity in slavery.

#vastearlyamerica
In 1860, a column ran on the front page of the Boston Evening Transcript: “Many persons imagine that Mother Goose is a myth — that no such person ever existed. This is a mistake. Mother Goose was not only a veritable personage, but was born and resided many years in Boston.”
The writer, John Fleet Eliot, claimed that the first edition of Mother Goose’s Melodies was printed in Boston in 1719 by Thomas Fleet, based on the songs and stories that Fleet’s mother-in-law, Elizabeth Foster Goose, sang to Fleet’s nine children.
Read 27 tweets
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Headsnipe011
@Headsnipe011
#BIG news you might have missed

@drawandstrike @catesduane @rising_serpent @almostjingo @tracybeanz @CarrollQuigley1 @dbongino

#JustTheRealNews #JTRN
DEA investigation leads to 36 arrests in fentanyl, cocaine, methamphetamine conspiracy

#JustTheRealNews #JTRN #BIG

justtherealnews.com/exec-depts/jus…
Thirteen Charged, Eight Search Warrants Executed, More Than A Thousand Grams of Fentanyl and Three Firearms Seized in Project Safe Neighborhoods Investigation

#JustTheRealNews #JTRN #BIG

justtherealnews.com/exec-depts/jus…
Read 14 tweets
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Emily Ricotta, PhD
@Iplaywithgerms
#Event201 begins. Check it out online to participate virtually! centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/ #pandemic #biosecurity
Global leaders in business and government have convened to address the pandemic situation. @T_Inglesby from @JHSPH_CHS Moderates. See the #Event201 website for details on the participants.
Global distribution of cases and deaths from #Event201
Read 45 tweets
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FaceTheCuban© SirLRO🎈{Interactive}
@FaceTheCuban
...#Positivity is in each & everyone of us. Let it flow more often, makes a better day. #SirLRO
...#Positivity ~none said it was easy, all you have to do is one step at a time. I know you can, keep going. #SirLRO
~ #Positivity there is no need for deprecating others with words, when it calls for~there is a need for compassion, it’s in you, #SirLRO
Read 246 tweets
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🇺🇸Gigi Sims🇺🇸💋
@1GigiSims
Thread: 1) The PATH: Mapping out a New Sustainable WORLD while keeping the majority of America in the dark.

How they've planned it (in part) and still are today.
(Money & sources will be noted throughout.) .@POTUS @Debradelai
Obama 2013: The few care for the many yet Democrats always want more poor and more programs for them. Who is thinking about the future of this model? @POTUS @DonaldJTrumpJr washington.cbslocal.com/2013/12/16/pol…
3) DEMS: We’re gonna need A LOT OF MONEY: ‘The PATH’ Mapping out a New America and a New Sustainable WORLD while keeping the majority of the country in the dark. @POTUS @SidneyPowell1 @vabelle2010 @BernardKerik forbes.com/sites/legalnew…
Read 72 tweets

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