#Event201 begins. Check it out online to participate virtually! centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/ #pandemic #biosecurity
Global leaders in business and government have convened to address the pandemic situation. @T_Inglesby from @JHSPH_CHS Moderates. See the #Event201 website for details on the participants.
Global distribution of cases and deaths from #Event201
No licensed #vaccine. Potential #treatment, but prioritization of recipients will need to occur, and extensive financing and infrastructure will need to be placed to reach capacity. Global tension exists among populations, governments, and int’l agencies.
Board meeting No 1. How should we allocate and distribute #antivirals and medical supplies to the people who need them most? Stephen Redd from @CDCgov is the first to offer an opinion. #Event201
There needs to be an understanding of virus transmission so we know where to prioritize treatment & prevention. Don’t forget about LMIC in supply chain. @WorldBank suggests Contingency Emergency Response Components - country loans for emergency situations. #Event201
George Gao from China CDC reminds the committee that pigs are still in the transmission cycle, so we cannot forget the #zoonotic implications. When we plan supply chain management, we need to keep pigs and farmers in mind.
@T_Inglesby highlights the importance of data collection and #surveillance due to discrepancies in case fatality we’re seeing. The virus is the same globally but data collection is not. Without good #data, you cannot have good estimates! #epidemiology #Event201
Countries need to be able to prioritize domestic problems (in terms of supply chain) while still being global citizens and helping other countries who need countermeasures. Need to define aim of countermeasure usage (different countries might have diff priorities?)
Need good #scicomm to manage public expectations and fear response. Supply chain management has been prioritized in this meeting but can’t forget the public’s response. #Event201
Pandemic update! #Event201
Travel and trade bans have begun in countries globally. These measures are ineffective at preventing importation, will only delay it, and will wreck global economies. #Event201
Board meeting No. 2: how should leaders balance the risk of disease spread against the risk of profound economic consequences from disruption to trade and travel?
Need an analytic approach: would restrictions to travel/trade be effective or beneficial? CDC has put time-limited travel bans in place during other pandemics (H1N1). UPS pres Eduardo Martinez points out this doesn’t have to be a 0/1 decision. #Event201
Provide advisories for t/t so people can assess risk. Keep community up to date on commodities projections.
Supply chains have been disrupted. People demand PPE before continuing work. Countries need to plan for business continuity to endure continued commodity production and basic services so that systems don’t collapse. #Event201
Travel bans impact news reporters getting to affected areas and so correct news is not being disseminated. Need to plan to get news into areas and protected so that there’s not a spread of #misinformation
Need to differentiate between travel and trade. Not all countries equal in terms of trade risk. Need to be able to maintain supply chain of commodities. Are there essential vs nonessential trade?? #Event201
Need to ask whether #riskcommunication is more important than a travel ban? With large pop (and political) support for bans, it is critical to adequately communicate science. This has been done successfully (?) during H1N1 and Ebola.
Can we develop a country by country risk assessment for t/t to mitigate risk but minimize economic impact? @T_Inglesby reminds the board that we can’t assume countries have 0 cases, esp if surveillance is low or nonexistent. #Event201
Also need to ensure continuity of care in countries for other diseases, especially with int’l mobilization of healthcare workers. How can HCW keep themselves safe, keep patients safe, and not spread panic in institutions?
Focus on global logistics infrastructure. Private sector knows the flexibility and availability of their supply chains. G20 finance ministers might have a role incentivizing private sector and financing public sector. Leverage cooperation of existing suppliers. #Event201
Pandemic update 3. Global surveillance is struggling to keep up, so these numbers are likely an underestimation. #Event201
Economic impact of #Event201 is greater in HIC than LMIC despite fewer cases. However, increased financing is necessary to keep struggling countries from economic failure and governmental collapse.
Board meeting No. 3: how should financial resources be allocated? Fund public health & hearhcare? Companies working on response? Stabilize failing governments? Prop up industries? Are there nodes that we cannot allow to fail? Not enough money for all. #Event201
Need to prioritize bring pandemic under control or saving economy becomes redundant. Need to prioritize medical countermeasures and commodities, their supply chain and distribution.
What are contingency capabilities of struggling countries? Do they have surge capacity? Need to assess national efforts and capacity to mobilize during an emergency. Also need to assess value for money for intervantions. #Event201
Need a centralized effort, not system (eg not UN). Need to work across sectors to make sure $ doesn’t disperse. How can industry still help finance response even when suffering major economic losses? #Event201
Some governments have collapsed, which can lead to instability, terrorism, famine, etc. There is a need for humanitarian assistance to prevent increased death, as well as dealing with ongoing pandemic that will only get worse in these settings. #Event201
Resources need to prioritize public health, since crisis is worsening and need for commodities is only increasing. Supply chain can’t keep up. Need to get pandemic under control in order to restore other stability. #Event201
How many times can we respond to a pandemic? How do we plan our investments for future events? How can we be realistic about the efficacy of medical countermeasures? And how can we keep public trust in these systems from eroding with repeated pandemics? #Event201
Private sectors that are diversified can help step in to fortify response capacity (ie Marriott hotels have an international heathcare team that can be leveraged for health). #Event201
Need data and data analytics to learn from this pandemic to improve our response to the next. (Personal note: this is where #epidemiologists and #datascientists can play a role! Bring these players in from the beginning to ensure the appropriate data is being collected).
Pandemic update 4. The end is not in sight. #Event201
Spread of dis and misinformation has exploded on social media. Who knows who to trust? What is real, what is fake? Where should news come from? How can public health orgs respond and combat this? Should web content be suspended/filtered? #Event201
Board meeting No. 4: how can gov’t, businesses & int’l orgs ensure that the right info gets to the public? How much control over info should there be and by whom? How can false info be effectively challenged? What if it comes from gov’t? From companies? #Event201
Solutions? Flood internet with correct info. Rely, inform, equip trusted sources with right info. Invest in tech solutions like algorithms to sift through media, to provide more confidence in info sources. Shutting down social media will just increase distrust & unrest.
Have companies disseminate info to workers (ER: although this needs to start before people stop coming to work), tap into faith-based and community orgs to provide info from a trusted source. #Event201
Suggestion for centralized response to global communication. Wants a central repository for data, facts, and messages. (ER: centralized data repository?! Yes please! I’m skeptical of that ever becoming a reality) #Event201
Will #antivax sentiment be sustained through a pandemic? If a viable vaccine is produced, will we need to combat this group of mis/disinformers? Or will people be too frantic not to die to eschew the vaccine? #Event201
Why do we communicate? To spread facts. Well, people know facts and ignore them (ie tobacco) and don’t change behavior. Can/should we incentivize people for behavior change? I’m tapping in @JohnsHopkinsCCP, who are experts in this field. #Event201
#Event201 wrap up: Economic impact could last a decade. Societal impact could last even longer. Could this have been stopped? Can we prepare for the next pandemic? While #publichealth interventions can be successful, there’s a limit to what can be done on the fly, globally.
@JHSPH_CHS has drafted recommendations for #pandemic #preparedness. Input welcome!
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