Thread by @TheLastRefuge2

(1) Bernie Sanders assures his supporters he's not dropping out. But he's not being honest. Here's how we know:

(2) The DNC has cut Bernie off at the knees. He saw that in Michigan and that's why he didn't speak last night...

But his campaign situation is far worse, and he knows it.

(3) Bernie lost the heavily union influenced state of Michigan by over 200,000 votes (53/37); many of those union votes were against losing their Cadillac healthcare plans. A stunning defeat for Senator Sanders in a state he narrowly carried in 2016.

(4) Last night means Bernie has to look toward March 17th for any remaining hope. Illinois, Ohio, Florida and Arizona.

Illinois is the mirror image of Michigan, with one big difference.... THE DNC CLUB has even stronger control.

Bernie knew this long ago.

(5) Given the position of the DNC Club, and with Michigan as the precursor, Illinois (155 delegates) is no longer viable.

Florida (219 delegates) is a lost cause. ‘Fidel’ Sanders (stupid comments) will likely see a similar outcome he received in Mississippi, no delegates.

(6) Bernie isn't even campaigning in Florida and never had any intention to. A likely scenario is a loss that puts him below the minimum 15% threshold for delegates.

(Last St. Pete poll had him at 12%) Biden was polling above 60% in Florida. Forget Florida.

(7) That leaves the firewall of Ohio. Bernie’s road-map always included Ohio (136 delegates), but the Club knee-capped him on that possibility; intentionally and smartly, by cancelling all indoor rallies under the auspices of Coronavirus.

(8) That only leaves Arizona (67 delegates); but by then it’s too late. The best possibility on March 17th is another 50/50 split in Arizona similar to Washington State.

That ends March 17th. That's the reality. Bernie knows this.

(9) March 24th ends with Georgia. Given the outcomes in all states around Georgia, Biden walks away with it.

Bernie knows this.

So why is Bernie staying?

(10) The only leverage Bernie Sanders carries now is the March 15th CNN debate in Arizona.

The DNC wants this contest over, & The Club does not want to see Joe Biden’s diminished mental acuity exposed. This is the only remaining leverage for Bernie Sanders.

(11) Either Bernie has already made a deal with the Club for terms... or the terms are still being negotiated.

One thing is certain, Bernie knows he has no path for delegate accumulation (math is math); and he's previously said he's not a masochistic.

/END