Thread by @leashless

Alright. I finally got oriented. I know what (the harder core) among you really need: feasta.org/2010/09/27/thr… This is the State Failure work, the "hospitals are gone, we're on our own" work. This is the stuff we will need later. resiliencemaps.org/files/Dealing_… video diagrams are here.

You're also gonna need resiliencemaps.org/files/Dealing_… which uses this Simple Critical Infrastructure Maps model to dig down and manage the detailed planning work one needs to govern a whole society in an epidemic.

guptaoption.com/6.SPRS.php Corona is much less bad than bird flu by the way

The point of this work is to get *fully aligned* to the situation that State level services are going to fail at scale in a few weeks as the hospitals blow out in the face of the epidemic, and very plausibly there are severe supply chain disruptions.

This toolkit trains thinking

It doesn't provide you with any easy answers, and it doesn't make plans for you.

What it does, is provides an *OBJECTIVE FRAME OF REFERENCE* for groups of professionals who are suddenly being asked to rise to the occasion to model their situation and make collaborative decisions

I've gotta tell you, building Simple Critical Infrastructure Maps and guptaoption.com/6.SPRS.php nearly killed me ten years ago. It was like living in the mid-flu crisis in my head, every single day, modelling out what is important, how everything works. The models are clear as ice.

Here's how you use them. You sit down with a sheet of paper, and you draw out the Dartboard on the front of resiliencemaps.org on a big sheet of paper. Then you fll it in, with whatever it is that supports you. Note particularly the "ILLNESS" sector: add lots of detail there

The real purpose of that diagram system is small group planning meetings: half a dozen people at most, trying to figure out how their respective organizations can work together to protect the people under their care.

County level: police, fire, hospital, schools at one table.

I don't think, on current data, that coronavirus is going to kill enough people to kick over power grids, but it's clearly going to hit supply chains pretty damn hard.

A lot of people are dependent on things like insulin. Moving that around without getting people infected? Hard.

Anyway, let me tell you the truth here. I planned for a world in which 25% of humanity died in year one, and another 25 to 50% from infrastructure and agriculture failures in year 2 if planning did not go well.

I faced that shit down, and I made tools to minimize death that day.

This day is not that day, and that day may still come. Coronavirus is not bird flu, and I cut my teeth on bird flu.

You can do this: you can stare death in the face, and make death blink. You are human, and this is how we survived two millon years in the caves, making fire.

But now is the time to forget everything you think you know about society and the conveniences of everyday life. Things get weird from here, and weird dangerous.

You have to think very carefully about how supported we are by the systems which are about to fade out under big load

You have to go right back to the beginnnig: "the citizens are the first responder". The blue light services come *after* you've taken the first shot at dealing with the situation, and the blue light services are going to have their hands full for the worst parts of this process.

So you need to start looking really carefully at *HOW LIFE WORKS* so that, as things change rapidly, you can hang on to the things which are objectively real and make sure that you don't trip over something which will be agonizingly obvious with hindsight - cans but no can opener

So let me commend you again to read and digest everything on resiliencemaps.org

We can talk about how to make masks out of t-shirts and face protectors out of soda bottles and baseball caps later. We can sing songs about the wonders of bleach. That time may well come.

But right now, start learning *HOW YOUR LIFE WORKS* by learning about supply chains and critical infrastructure from resiliencemaps.org

Fully absorb those models: they're the core framework on which all future planning work on your life is going to hang as you survive this

resiliencemaps.org (and the spectacularly good flu planning work by @lucasgonzalez also at that link) is the semantic framework required to turn people who do day jobs into people who are active agents of their own survival, and the survival of their communities.

Read now.

files.howtolivewiki.com/through_the_lo… is the slide deck in feasta.org/2010/09/27/thr… and it's a superb starting point for figuring out how to respond to systemic crises.

I was really, really good at this stuff. I had to quit because I couldn't make a living: hello Ethereum!

Still broke. Christ

Bloody cut/paste error resiliencemaps.org/files/fluscim/… that's the file you want - whole society pandemic planning on an extensible, flexible matrix. By @lucasgonzalez

resiliencemaps.org/files/fluscim/… missed that URL above - pasted the wrong link. This is really important.

resiliencemaps.org/files/fluscim/… missed this link on the earlier paste. It's really critical. By @lucasgonzalez