Thread by @marshray

If there’s no TP on the store shelves, it’s not the fault of the consumers and it’s NOT evidence of “panic buying”.

A thread:

Tissue paper is manufactured in long rolls (‘logs’), which are then sawn into the familiar short rolls. A simple and inexpensive process.
tissuepapermakingmachine.com/toilet-paper-m…

Linear shelf space is the most valuable resource for the retailer. It’s some of the most expensive real estate anywhere.

Volumetric space is the most valuable resource for the warehouse distributor (because forklifts).

TP is costly in all three spatial dimensions.

So all the incentives align for the supply chains to try to minimize their inventory of this bulky, low margin product that is unprofitable to stock.
Under normal circumstances, people consume TP at a very predictable rate, so the distribution system can run very lean.

There’s likely to be very little extra inventory in the TP supply chain.
When there’s no slack, even the slightest bump in demand will result in supply chain shortages.

Here is a suburban area served by three or four supermarkets. The triangular neighborhood, Klahanie, around the lower QFC represents approximately 10,000 households

Here’s the TP at a large supermarket, much larger than the ones on the map. Real-time sales telemetry is employed to try to avoid stocking extra in the back.

Maybe there’s a few hundred packs?

So if every household acts on the advice of state officials, calmly, rationally puts TP on their shopping list, they will soon find that the supply chain has failed them.

But the media, near universally, reports this as a “panic buying” phenomenon.
It fits with shoppers’ experiences, is easy to get pictures for, doesn’t offend any advertisers, and we don’t often get a chance to talk about the psychology of our bathroom activities.

Everybody seems to find this narrative compelling. It’s a lighter side of a truly horrible situation.

Seems harmless enough. Does it really matter if the explanation is true?

Addendum: Yes, the truth really does does matter, even for things that seem inconsequential. Perhaps this deserves a separate thread.