3/ Estimated daily hospital admissions of #COVID19 cases in Germany under assumption of 5% hospitalisation rate. Note: Germany has 500,000 hospital beds. 
4/ ...Resulting in required hospital beds (500,000 available!):
5/ Expected deaths per day, estimated final CFR at 0,5%. Compare with the death rate in Hubei, which is already decreasing after a few weeks, with a flatter curve due to massive social distancing.
6/ Cumulative death cases, estimated final CFR at 0,5%, lower than Spanish flu 100 years ago which claimed more than 400,000 lives in Germany:
7/ Conclusion: even if the hospital admission rate is one power of ten lower than in this projection, the hospital health care system will be completely overburdened. I can now understand why the Chinese have built temporary hospitals in minimum time.
8/ I'm afraid we will see the same videos from Germany as we know them from Wuhan.
I cannot understand why the German Health Minister #jensspahn says that we are well prepared.
"The consequences of fear can be far greater than the virus itself." @JensSpahn
I cannot understand why the German Health Minister #jensspahn says that we are well prepared.
"The consequences of fear can be far greater than the virus itself." @JensSpahn
9/ I'm scared of that health minister.
@JensSpahn, in his government statement on the situation of the #Coronavirus, has called on German citizens to be level-headed. How about working instead of calling?
@JensSpahn, in his government statement on the situation of the #Coronavirus, has called on German citizens to be level-headed. How about working instead of calling?
10/ The next days I will present my concept of managing this crisis. Everyone must contribute. Stay tuned.
