Corona Calculus (CC) 1/20: The past few days have been overwhelming the world over–going from mild concerns to most places (work, school, shops) closing & interactions limited to remote ones. What is happening & what can we do?
CC 2/n: since this thread is long-for those who don’t want to read all of it here’s the bottom line: While we are in a tough situation, using data and some basic reasoning (modeling) can allow us to make fairly informed responses that can save lives
CC 3/n: First a caveat. I am neither an epidemiologist nor public health expert. Just an economist, academic and analytically inclined person struggling to make sense of what’s going on and hope what I am learning can help others
CC 4/n: I will offer ideas on both policy and individual level responses that can help based on three levels of Corona spread (L1 = start, L2 = moderate, & L3= a large fraction of pop is infected) where L3 is a situation I hope most are able to avoid
CC 5/n: First, the main messages (i) Don’t panic-be calm but cautious (ii) Knowledge is a friend–learn, observe & test (iii)adjust/delay productive activities but commit to do later (iv) there will be tough tradeoffs–so consider short&long term implications (v) keep public trust
CC 6/n: L1 case- when it’s just starting (only few cases)-Need to test aggressively (make testing free & readily available–see CC 17/n), isolate infected asap, thoroughly track all they have contacted and have those folk self-quarantine themselves; plan & prepare for level 2
CC 7/n: L1- Individuals can still continue essential productive activities (things that contribute to economy & society) with some caution (wash/sanitize) so as to minimize socio-economic impact but move non-essential stuff to virtual/later (be entertained but do so virtually)
CC 8/n: L2 case(where many places are now)- At this point one has no choice but to implement (costly) physical distancing immediately (see CC 15/n for how this helps) – so work & school goes virtual/online, we all avoid large gatherings and limit between group interactions
CC 9/n: L2- Physical distancing is going to be costly (S&P500 lost $2.5 trillion on March 12-worst since ’87)-will need to manage it by adjusting its extent & severity to prevalence rates & clearly communicating to the public what we are doing & why so they feel part of solution
CC 10/n: L2- To mitigate costs ALSO need to take actions that help control and respond but that provide economic stimuli – this isn’t just restricted to cash subsidies and support for affected & poor but also measures that generate short & long term benefits. Some examples:
CC 11/n: L2-health-big issue is hospitals hitting capacity-since most cases are not severe use local hotels so folk can get tested there, quarantined if moderate & moved to hospital if severe. Hotel staff can be trained & supported-will help reduce burden and stimulate economy
CC 12/n:L2-online stimulus-everyone is moving online(work, education, buying)-invest substantially NOW (including subsidies) to expand capacity-bandwidth but also get & train people to be online deliverers-building infrastructure & getting folk used to online has lasting payoffs
CC 13/n: L2-Individuals can help reduce costs-while you minimize in-person contact (see C 16/n on ways to do so) do as many (&more) things virtually; if you can’t, don’t cancel but postpone & COMMIT to doing later–this creates positive future expectations & stabilizes markets now
CC 14/n: L3 case (high prevalence rates-hope all avoid) At this point social distancing likely has limited benefit given spread–will have to rely more on herd immunity; instead focus on healing sick and supporting those who have lost people & resources, and rebuilding economy
CC 15/n: How does distancing work? See Exponential growth is harsh but sensitive to small changes–starting @21,000 cases 15% daily increase hits 100m cases in 2 months; if drop rate to 5% (by meeting less & washing hands) this is 400,000. 250x lower!
CC 16/n: Feasible distancing: if virtual socializing isn’t enough or u can’t indiv isolate, instead pick a small group (family/friends) & interact (even in person) ONLY with them-limit between group interactions–this way you may infect each other but not outside–safer for society
CC 17/n: What to do if we have limited tests? Test people by grouping them into predicted infection rates (high=travelers/airport staff/shopkeepers etc. to low=folk w/ limited contact) and base decisions & treatment response to prevalence rates found in these groups. So:
CC 18/n: If find that those predicted to be high incidence turn out to have low rates -> adopt L1 response (isolate, track contacts) & prioritize testing of exposed by high risk-factor groups. If find high rates even in low incidence predicted groups -> need L2/L3 response
CC 19/n: Are those in warmer climates safe? See arxiv.org/abs/2003.05003 – possible. Though much is still unknown about temperature and covid19, so even if it lessens when temps are high, warmer places will get hit in the winter and need to prep now
CC 20/n: People & Trust matters. Models don’t build in human responses but hope for it. YOU CAN reduce spread by even small actions (washing, distancing). We need to understand and trust advice- for that governments need to openly & honestly inform us and make us part of solution
