Thread by @wtgowers

Here is a conclusion that seems utterly obvious: if it is inevitable that at some point a lockdown will be necessary, then DO IT NOW. Why? For the simple reason that every two or three days, the number of cases doubles. This has two effects. 1/

https://twitter.com/johncarlosbaez/status/1238964166922100736

The first is that the number of people who die doubles. The second is that if lockdown results in an exponential decay of new cases with a half life of n days, then the time taken to get back to zero is reduced by n days. So fewer people get the disease and ... 2/

the lockdown can be shorter (though what you do when the number of cases is back under control is not obvious).

The only counterargument I'm aware of, though there may be others, is that people won't accept lockdown if it doesn't seem warranted by the number of cases. 3/

But perhaps they will if it is explained to them that doing it now makes things much easier. Wouldn't it be good if there were a proverb for that? Oh wait ... 4/

A stitch in time saves nine.

Usual disclaimer: I may have missed an important aspect of the situation.

Note that the conclusion I am reaching is that IF a lockdown is going to be necessary then we should do it now. 5/

But since it seems almost certain, given the experiences of other countries, that a lockdown will indeed be necessary, then I don't feel too uneasy saying

!!DO IT NOW!!

(but would be ready to change my mind if someone pointed out a consideration I've overlooked). 6/6

Unfortunately, the UK government seems committed to a very different strategy.

bbc.co.uk/news/uk-518958…